Varzim vs Paredes: match statistics

Varzim remain top of the table with a perfect record of 3 wins and have scored 14 goals in their last five matches, winning 4 times and drawing once. The hosts are exceptionally effective at home, averaging 2 goals from just 7 attempts per match and converting 29% of their shots, although their average xG is only 0.88. Paredes also have a 100% away win rate and are yet to concede on the road, while their advantage in chance creation is clear: 13 shots, 6 on target and an xG of 1.91 per match compared with Varzim’s 7 shots and 0.88 xG. However, the visitors’ main issue is their low 8% conversion rate, meaning that despite the quality of their chances, they average only 1 goal away from home. Both teams are in very solid form and have lost no more than once in their last five matches, which makes a closely fought draw the most likely outcome.

A strong argument for both teams to score is their current form: in their last 5 matches, Varzim and Paredes both recorded BTTS at 80%, averaging 2.8 and 2.0 goals scored, respectively. The hosts conceded 1.0 goal per match during this period, while the visitors conceded 1.2, meaning neither defence was consistently watertight. Paredes averaged 2.02 xG, while Varzim allowed opponents 1.21 xG, giving the visitors a solid basis for finding the net. Varzim, in turn, has the offensive edge with 2.07 xG across the season and 6.5 shots on target per match, while Paredes allows opponents 1.21 xG. Although Paredes' seasonal away record shows 100% clean sheets and 0% BTTS, the sample is small and contradicts the recent form of both teams. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is the more likely outcome.

The latest form of both teams clearly points to goals: Varzim have averaged 2.8 goals per match over their last five fixtures, while Paredes have averaged 2.0. During the same period, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 80% of matches involving each team, with both sides scoring in 80% of those games. The attacking potential remains high, with average xG of 1.42 for Varzim and 2.02 for Paredes, while both teams concede 1.0 and 1.2 goals per match, respectively. Although Paredes have recorded a 100% clean-sheet rate away from home so far, such a small sample conflicts with their recent average of 1.2 goals conceded and the hosts’ attacking form. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as the projected total of 3.05 goals provides a substantial safety margin above this line.

Varzim are in excellent form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.8 goals and conceding just 1.0. The opening phase is crucial, as the hosts held a lead at the break in 80% of their last five appearances, scoring an average of 1.6 goals before half-time, while Paredes were trailing at half-time in 50% of their matches. Varzim also create more chances, averaging 18.5 shots, 6.5 on target and an xG of 2.07, compared with the visitors’ 13.0 shots, 6.0 on target and xG of 1.91. However, Paredes have won all of their away matches so far and have not conceded a goal on the road, so draw or turnaround scenarios remain relevant. Nevertheless, Varzim’s advantage in current form, particularly in the first halves, points most strongly towards the hosts leading at half-time and securing the win after the final whistle.