Vejle vs Hillerød: match statistics

Vejle are in clearly superior recent form: they have collected 10 points from their last five matches, recording 3 wins and a draw, while Hillerød have managed just 4 points. At home, the hosts create a high volume of chances, averaging 26 shots and 7 shots on target per match, with an impressive average xG of 2.57 compared with Hillerød’s 1.31 away from home. Vejle score an average of 2 goals at home and have not failed to score in any match, whereas the visitors are yet to find the net away from home, have not won a single match and have lost 100% of their away fixtures. Vejle’s defence is not flawless, conceding an average of 2 goals at home, but Hillerød have shown poor finishing and average only 46% possession away from home. The hosts’ advantage in match control, chance quality and recent results points to a Vejle victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Hillerød’s poor away finishing: the team has yet to score an away goal, averages 0.0 goals, and finished without scoring in 100% of such matches. Vejle have clearly improved defensively in their last five games, conceding just 0.6 goals per match, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of those fixtures. The hosts should score, however, as they average 2.08 xG, 20 shots, and 6 shots on target per home game, while Hillerød concede an average of 1.0 goal away from home. The visitors do have some offensive potential, reflected in 1.41 xG over their last five matches and a 60% BTTS rate during that period, but this run also includes an average of 1.8 goals conceded. Although the league-wide BTTS average stands at 67%, the combination of Vejle’s recently stronger defence and Hillerød’s away inefficiency points slightly more strongly towards a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Vejle have averaged 1.4 goals scored in their last five matches, while Hillerød have conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game over the same period, strengthening the outlook for the hosts to score. The home side have generated a strong 1.72 xG across their last five appearances, whereas Hillerød have allowed opponents 1.61 xG. The visitors score an average of 1.0 goals, while Vejle’s defense, despite their good run of results, have still conceded an average of 1.53 xG. The league average stands at 2.75 goals, but only 20% of Vejle’s recent matches have gone over 2.5 goals, meaning the Over 2.5 line does not offer the same clear edge. The strongest selection is Over 1.5: a projected 2.60 goals, combined with Vejle’s attacking potential, points to a high probability of at least two goals.

Vejle are in clearly better recent form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, while Hillerød have scored 1.0 goal and allowed opponents 1.8 on average. The hosts led at the break in 60% of those fixtures and never went into half-time behind, whereas the visitors were trailing after the first half in 40% of their matches and led in only 20%. The difference is also evident in first-half performances: Vejle average 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, compared with Hillerød’s 0.2 scored and 0.6 conceded. After the break, the hosts remain more defensively stable, conceding an average of 0.4 goals, while Hillerød’s opponents score an average of 1.2 goals in this phase. The most logical scenario is therefore a Vejle lead at half-time, with the hosts maintaining their advantage until the final whistle.