Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina: match statistics
Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Velež played Radnik Bijeljina in Premier League of Bosnia (Bosnia & Herzegovina). The match was played on 1 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Velež: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Radnik Bijeljina: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Velež scores 0.90 and concedes 0.84 goals per match. Radnik Bijeljina scores 0.87 and concedes 1.26. League average: 2.12 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Velež 32%, Radnik Bijeljina 32%. Over 2.5: Velež 32%, Radnik Bijeljina 35%. League level: BTTS 37%, Over 2.5 37%.
xG, shots and style
Velež has higher xG: 1.32 vs 1.13. Velež: 10.3 shots per match, Radnik Bijeljina: 9.2.
Match halves
Velež: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.61. Radnik Bijeljina: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.42.
Goals by minute
Velež: 76-90+ (8 goals). Radnik Bijeljina: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League of Bosnia: 2.12 goals per match, BTTS 37%, Over 2.5 37%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 1.67, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1). Velež holds a clear advantage in defense and home form: at home they concede only 0.47 goals per match on average and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of appearances, while Radnik concedes 1.8 goals away and has just 13% clean sheets. The hosts also create more chances — Velež’s average xG is 1.54 versus Radnik’s 1.02 on the road, average shots 13 versus 8.4 and shots on target 4.07 versus 3.27, which translates into 8 goals for Velež in the last 5 matches compared to 3 for Radnik. In the last 5 fixtures Velež have 2 wins and 3 draws (PPG 1.8), while Radnik have only 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (PPG 0.8) and additionally win just 7% of away games with 60% away defeats. Considering superior chance creation, xG advantage and the hosts’ solid defense, I assess Velež’s win probability at 72%, draw 18% and the away win 10%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Velež at home has a seasonal BTTS of only 19% and keeps a clean sheet in 56% of matches, meaning they conceded at least one goal in 44% of games — a strong signal against Both Teams To Score. Radnik away averages 0.8 goals and has a seasonal BTTS of 47%, but in the last 5 matches they scored only 3 goals (0.6 per game) and conceded 8 (1.6 per game), indicating limited offensive effectiveness from the visitors. Velež in the last 5 matches scored 8 goals (1.6 per game) and conceded only 2 (0.4 per game); their attacking xG is 1.24 versus Radnik's xG against 1.62, yet the hosts regularly keep clean sheets. Considering the hosts' low seasonal BTTS of 19%, high clean sheet rate of 56% and Radnik's poor scoring form (3 goals in 5 matches), I estimate BTTS 'Yes' at 28% and 'No' at 72% and my top pick is "no".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project approximately 2.64 total goals in the match (1.43 for Velež, 1.21 for Radnik), which corresponds to an estimated probability of Over 1.5 goals of about 74%. Estimate is based on xG: Velež posts xG 1.24 while Radnik concedes xG 1.62 — their average yields 1.43 for the home side; similarly Radnik has xG 1.02 and Velež concedes xG 1.39, giving 1.21 for the away team. In the last 5 matches Velež scored 8 and conceded 2 (avg 1.6 and 0.4), while Radnik in their last 5 have 3 goals and 8 conceded (0.6 and 1.6), indicating home attacking form and away defensive vulnerability. Season-long metrics support the 1.5 line: Over1.5 occurred in 50% of Velež games and 67% of Radnik games, whereas Over2.5 is only 31% and 40% respectively, so the 2.5 line is less certain. Considering the expected 2.64 goals and the relatively low incidence of Over3.5 (Velež 6%, Radnik 27%), the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Velež victory (X/1): Velež are level at the break in 50% of matches (8 occurrences) and lead at the break in 31% of fixtures (5 occurrences). Seasonal figures show a clear home advantage: an average of 1.56 points per match for Velež versus 0.53 for Radnik, and 44% wins for Velež compared to only 7% away wins. Radnik concedes an average of 1.8 goals per match with xG against of 1.62, while Velež generate xG of 1.24 and concede on average 0.75 goals, which increases the probability of home goals in the second half. Additionally, Velež perform better after the break – in the last 5 matches they averaged 1.8 points in second halves versus 0.4 for Radnik, so after a draw at half-time the hosts have the highest chance of a turnaround; therefore X/1 received the highest weight (28%), with 1/1 as the second-strongest signal (24%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Velež | Radnik Bijeljina | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Radnik Bijeljina is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Velež · 1.4 pts / match - Radnik Bijeljina
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Velež is 50% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.84 goals / match - Velež · 1.26 goals / match - Radnik Bijeljina
Velež scores in 55% of matches (17 of 31 matches), while Radnik Bijeljina keeps a clean sheet in 35% (11 of 31 matches).
Radnik Bijeljina scores in 52% of matches (16 of 31 matches), while Velež keeps a clean sheet in 39% (12 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Velež
Over / Under - Radnik Bijeljina
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Velež - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Radnik Bijeljina - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Velež
Radnik Bijeljina
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League of Bosnia).
Teams vs league
| Velež | Liga | Radnik Bijeljina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.74 | 2.12 | • 2.13 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 32% | 37% | ▼ 32% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 32% | 37% | ▼ 35% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 37% | ▼ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 45% | 57% | ▲ 68% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 72% | ▼ 58% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Velež 1 - 0 - 2 Radnik Bijeljina. Average goals 1.67, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina?
The Premier League of Bosnia match finished Velež 1:0 Radnik Bijeljina. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Velež and Radnik Bijeljina?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Velež won 1, Radnik Bijeljina won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina?
Velež score 0.90 goals per game on average and Radnik Bijeljina 0.87. The Premier League of Bosnia average is 2.12 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 37% of games. Both teams score in 32% of Velež's matches and 32% of Radnik Bijeljina's.
What form are Velež and Radnik Bijeljina in?
Over the last 5 games Velež have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Radnik Bijeljina 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.