Venados vs Morelia: match statistics
Full analysis and pick in the app
Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.
Venados vs Morelia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Venados play Morelia in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match date is 26 September 2026. Venue: Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero.
Current form
Venados: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Morelia: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Venados scores 2.44 and concedes 2.11 goals per match. Morelia scores 2.11 and concedes 1.00. League average: 3.22 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Venados 78%, Morelia 56%. Over 2.5: Venados 89%, Morelia 56%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 60%.
xG, shots and style
Venados has higher xG: 1.96 vs 1.72. Venados: 15.3 shots per match, Morelia: 13.3.
Match halves
Venados: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 1.78. Morelia: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 1.44.
Goals by minute
Venados: 61-75 (7 goals). Morelia: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 3.22 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 60%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 100%.
Before the match
1X2 odds
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Venados | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 46% | 48% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Morelia is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Venados · 2.4 pts / match - Morelia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Venados is 16% better for: goals scored per match.
2.44 goals / match - Venados · 2.11 goals / match - Morelia
Morelia is 111% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.11 goals / match - Venados · 1 goals / match - Morelia
Venados scores in 100% of matches (9 of 9 matches), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
Morelia scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Venados keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Venados
Over / Under - Morelia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Morelia is 67% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Venados · 1.67 pts / match - Morelia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Venados - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 78%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Venados
Morelia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Venados | Liga | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.56 | 3.22 | ▼ 3.11 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 78% | 56% | • 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 89% | 60% | ▼ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 24% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 76% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 79% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Venados 0 - 1 - 1 Morelia. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
When do Venados and Morelia play?
Venados face Morelia on 26 September 2026 in Ascenso MX at Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.
What is the head-to-head record between Venados and Morelia?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Venados won 0, Morelia won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Venados vs Morelia?
Venados score 2.44 goals per game on average and Morelia 2.11. The Ascenso MX average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 60% of games. Both teams score in 78% of Venados's matches and 56% of Morelia's.
What form are Venados and Morelia in?
Over the last 5 games Venados have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Morelia 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Venados vs Morelia?
The statistical background for Venados vs Morelia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.