Venezia vs Juve Stabia: match statistics

Venezia has a clear home advantage: at home they won 88% of matches, scoring on average 2.31 goals and conceding only 0.69 per game with an average xG of 2.04. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 10 goals and conceded only 2, with an average of 2.2 points per game, while Juve Stabia scored 7 and conceded 7 in that period (1.2 points per game). The visitors struggle away — averaging 1.00 goal, 3.5 shots on target and 38% of matches without a goal, with away xG 1.11 and xG against 1.39. Venezia creates more high-quality chances (6.25 shots on target at home) and controls the game (65% possession), and also has 50% clean sheets at home versus just 13% for Juve Stabia. Considering the xG advantage (2.04 vs 1.11), higher goalscoring efficiency (2.31 vs 1.00 goals per game) and superior form (10–2 goals in the last 5), I tip a home win.

I favor BTTS - Yes at 62% probability, as several robust metrics point to goals at both ends. Venezia averages 1.38 goals per home match with average xG 1.53, while Juve Stabia concedes 1.56 goals away with xG against 1.39 — indicating the hosts have realistic scoring opportunities. The visitors score 1.0 goals on average away with xG 1.11, and although Venezia has 50% clean sheets at home and conceded only 2 goals in the last 5 matches (0.4 per game), that does not rule out Juve Stabia finding the net. Additionally, Juve Stabia’s seasonal away BTTS rate is 56% and BTTS occurred in 80% of their last 5 matches, whereas Venezia’s home BTTS is 50% and 40% in the last 5 — the visitors’ form edge and a league-wide BTTS level of 55% make Yes the stronger signal (62% vs 38%).

Venezia averages 1.38 goals at home with xG 1.53 from 14.5 shots (4.5 on target), while Juve Stabia average 1.00 goals away with xG 1.11 and concede 1.56 goals season-to-date (xG against 1.39). In the last 5 matches Venezia scored 10 goals (2.0 avg) with xG 2.06, and Juve Stabia scored 7 and conceded 7 in their last five with xG 1.34. Season-long rates show Over 1.5 occurred in 63% of Venezia’s home games and 81% of Juve Stabia’s matches, and BTTS is 50% and 56%, respectively, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. Based on this I forecast 1.85 goals for Venezia and 1.05 for Juve Stabia (total 2.90), translating to estimated probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈79%, Over 2.5 ≈55% and Over 3.5 ≈33%. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: the 1.5 line combines high historical rates (63%/81%) with an expected 2.9 goals and Venezia’s offensive edge.

Venezia clearly dominates chance creation: the home side’s average xG is 1.53 versus Juve Stabia’s 1.11, average shots 14.5 vs 9.94 and shots on target 4.5 vs 3.5, indicating greater control and pressure from the hosts. At Half-Time the hosts are strong — they led at the break in 8 matches (50%) and in 4 of the last 5 (80%), with an average goals conceded in the first half of 0.31 and a zero average conceded in the first half over the last 5 matches (0.0), which points to a high incidence of the hosts holding a lead after 45 minutes. In the last 5 matches Venezia have won 3 times (60%), and since those 3 wins occurred with 4 Half-Time leads, the conversion of a lead into a win is about 75% (3 out of 4), so maintaining the lead to Full-Time is realistic. Juve Stabia, on the other hand, have poor away numbers: they concede on average 1.56 goals per game, have only 13% clean sheets away and 19% away wins, which limits their chances of a turnaround. Therefore I rate 1/1 as the strongest scenario and assign it a 38% probability; other significant possibilities are X/1 15% and X/X 15%, 1/X 10%, X/2 8%, and the remaining scenarios 2/1 4%, 2/X 4%, 1/2 2% and 2/2 4%.