Venezia vs Lecce: match statistics

Venezia have collected 10 points from their last five matches, recording 3 wins and a draw, while Lecce have earned 9 points from 3 victories. The hosts have been significantly more clinical, scoring 13 goals during this period—2.6 per game—compared with Lecce’s 6. Neither defense has been flawless, but Lecce have conceded 6 goals versus Venezia’s 8, meaning the hosts may need another strong attacking performance to capitalize on home advantage. Lecce’s position in the table—12th compared with Venezia’s 20th—favors the visitors in the broader context, yet the hosts’ current goal production clearly improves their chances. A narrow Venezia win with both teams scoring appears to be the most likely outcome.

The signal for goals from both sides is driven primarily by the last five matches: Venezia averaged 2.6 goals, while Lecce averaged 1.2. The hosts conceded 1.6 goals per game during this period, whereas Lecce allowed opponents 1.2 goals, giving both attacks genuine opportunities to score. Venezia recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five appearances, compared with 40% for Lecce; this is moderate but positive support for a goal at both ends. In addition, Venezia’s average xG stands at 2.20 against 1.53 xG allowed by Lecce, while Lecce created 1.29 xG against 1.18 xG allowed by Venezia. The biggest risk is Lecce’s lower BTTS frequency, but the hosts’ current scoring form and volume of chances slightly favor the BTTS - Yes pick.

Venezia have scored 13 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.6 per game, while their average xG was a very high 2.20. Lecce have been less prolific, scoring 1.2 goals per match, but Venezia conceded an average of 1.6 goals during this period, giving the visitors a realistic path to finding the net. The combined average goals from the last five appearances is 4.2 for Venezia and 2.4 for Lecce, while the two teams’ average xG figures add up to 3.49. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Venezia’s last matches and in 40% of Lecce’s games, making Over 1.5 goals the safest pick, clearly supported by the high expected total of 3.05 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Venezia win, as the hosts have scored an average of 2.0 goals after the break in their last five matches, compared with just 0.6 for Lecce. The teams’ first-half performances were very similar: each averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Venezia were level at half-time in 40% of their matches. After the break, Venezia won 60% of their last five games and recorded a +6 goal difference, whereas Lecce drew as many as 80% of their second halves. The hosts are also clearly more effective over the full match, averaging 2.6 goals compared with Lecce’s 1.2. Lecce led at the break in 40% of matches, so scenarios involving a visitors’ lead after the first half remain realistic; however, their weaker attacking output after the break favours a Venezia turnaround.