Ventforet Kofu vs Consadole Sapporo: match statistics

Consadole Sapporo have a slightly better results trend: they have collected 5 points from their last five matches, while Ventforet Kofu have managed just 1 and lost 4 of those games. The visitors have scored 5 goals during this period compared with the hosts’ 2, while also averaging 3 shots on target away from home, compared with Kofu’s 2 at home. Sapporo should control possession more often, as their average away possession stands at 62%, whereas the hosts average just 39% on home soil. Kofu’s defence allows opponents chances worth an average of 1.78 xG per match, higher than the 1.50 xG conceded against Sapporo, further strengthening the case for the visitors. However, both teams are inefficient in creating chances, with average xG below 1.00, so a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The BTTS - No scenario has a slight edge, as Ventforet Kofu have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while BTTS occurred in only 40% of those fixtures. Although the home side create chances worth 1.36 xG per match, their actual finishing efficiency is clearly weaker than this level of chance creation suggests. Consadole Sapporo have not kept a clean sheet this season and concede an average of 2.0 goals, giving Kofu a case for scoring, but the hosts’ current scoring form remains a significant risk. The visitors should have a good chance of finding the net, as their recent xG stands at 1.50 and Kofu concede an average of 1.8 goals across their last five matches. With the league BTTS rate at just 37%, the more likely outcome is one in which at least one team—particularly Kofu—fails to score.

The model expects 2.30 goals, as the hosts generate an average of 1.49 xG, while their opponents allow an average of 1.50 xG per match. Consadole concede an average of 2.00 goals and have yet to keep a clean sheet, giving Kofu a solid foundation to score, but the hosts have averaged just 0.4 goals per match across their last 5 fixtures. Both teams have seen Over 2.5 goals in only 40% of their last 5 matches, while the league average stands at 2.50 goals. At the same time, Kofu have conceded an average of 1.8 goals during this run, yet Sapporo's attack manages only 3 shots on target per match and has a season xG of 0.84. The strongest selection is Under 3.5 goals, as the data supports a 1-3 goal scenario far more convincingly than an open game with at least four goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and at the final whistle, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches. Ventforet Kofu scored just 0.2 goals before the break during this period and never took the lead, while Consadole Sapporo averaged only 0.4 goals in first halves. The hosts do have higher average xG, 1.49 compared with 0.84, and average 13 shots to their opponents’ 6, but their current form amounts to just 0.2 points per match and 0 wins in their last five appearances. Sapporo shared the points more often in their recent run, drawing 40% of their matches, and averaged 0.6 goals after the break compared with Kofu’s 0.2, which limits confidence in the hosts even with home advantage. The draw therefore remains the most likely outcome, although a draw at half-time followed by an away win is the most serious alternative.