Verl vs Meppen: match statistics

Meppen enter this fixture in noticeably better form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches and scoring 10 goals in the process, while Verl have suffered 4 defeats and conceded as many as 13 goals. The hosts are only 19th in the table, and they have lost both of their two home matches so far, conceding an average of 3 goals per game and keeping no clean sheets. However, Verl are capable of creating chances, averaging 17 shots, 7.5 shots on target and an xG of 2.00 at home, making a goal for the hosts a realistic scenario. Meppen post a lower away xG average of 1.33, but they are more clinical in front of goal, converting 13% of their shots compared with Verl’s 9%. The visitors’ defence also looks more stable, with an average of 1.5 goals conceded away from home and 50% clean sheets, which gives them an edge against Verl’s vulnerable defence.

The BTTS - Yes pick holds a moderate edge, as Verl have conceded an average of 2.6 goals over their last 5 matches, while Meppen have conceded 2.2, clearly supporting a Goal/Goal outcome. Meppen scored 2.0 goals per match during this period with an xG of 1.57, whereas Verl recorded an xG of 1.43 and averaged as many as 8.0 shots on target per game. The latest BTTS figures stand at 60% for Verl and 40% for Meppen, while the league average of 57% provides additional, albeit slight, support for both teams to score. The risk comes from 50% of matches featuring a clean sheet for each side in the seasonal data, as well as Meppen's 0% BTTS rate in this sample. However, both teams' poor recent defensive form is a stronger argument for goals from the home and away sides. An open match is expected, with at least one Meppen goal against Verl's defence and a response from the hosts more likely than either team keeping a clean sheet.

The signal for at least 2 goals is very strong: in the matches played so far by both teams, the 1.5-goal line has been surpassed in 100% of cases. Verl concede as many as 3.0 goals per match on average, while Meppen score an average of 1.5 goals, with the visitors having already scored 2.0 goals per game in their last 5 matches. The hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 2.00 xG and 8 shots on target, while Meppen allow their opponents 1.52 xG per match. Recent defensive form further supports a high-scoring game, as Verl have conceded 13 goals in 5 matches and Meppen 11. Over 1.5 is the safest choice, as both teams have high rates of matches finishing above 2.5 goals in their last five appearances, at 80% each, while the 1.5 line requires significantly less to land.

Meppen are in clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 goals scored, while Verl have lost 4 of their 5 games, scoring 1.0 goal and conceding as many as 2.6 per match. The visitors are also more effective before the break, averaging 1.6 goals in the first halves of their last five appearances compared with Verl’s 0.6. In matches played under the conditions analysed, Meppen conceded just 0.5 goals per game before half-time, whereas Verl conceded as many as 1.5, strengthening the scenario of the visitors taking a lead at the break. After the interval, the hosts still look vulnerable defensively, having conceded an average of 2.4 goals in the second half of their last five matches. Therefore, the most likely outcome is for Meppen to maintain their advantage until full-time.