Vicenza vs Novara: match statistics

I predict a home win (1): Vicenza are table leaders with 25 wins this season and 1st place, while Novara have 8 wins and sit 12th. At home Vicenza score 1.88 goals and concede only 0.65 per match with an average xG of 1.81 (xG against 0.94), whereas Novara on the road score 0.94 and concede 0.94 with xG for 1.34 and xG against 1.52. Vicenza create more chances: 15.47 shots and 5.29 on target per home match with a conversion rate of 12%, while Novara average 10.29 shots and 3.76 on target with a 9% conversion and are much more likely to fail to score (share of matches without a goal 29% vs 12%). In the last 5 matches Vicenza have scored 9, conceded 6 and averaged 2 points per match (3W-1D-1L), while Novara have 6 goals, 8 conceded and average 1 point per match (1W-2D-2L). Considering Vicenza’s 76% home win rate versus Novara’s just 18% away wins and the high share of away draws (65%), I assess the probabilities at 70% for the home side, 20% for a draw and 10% for Novara.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates above the league average: Vicenza 56% and Novara 53% versus league 50%, providing a baseline edge for a Both Teams To Score scenario. In the last 5 matches the signal is stronger — Vicenza posts 80% BTTS, averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 1.2, while Novara has 60% BTTS with 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded in the last 5. xG supports this view: Vicenza xG_for 1.56 vs Novara xG_against 1.52 suggests the hosts should create chances, and Novara xG_for 1.34 exceeds Vicenza xG_against 1.10, increasing the visitors’ scoring probability. Additionally Vicenza has only 28% clean sheets (versus Novara 41%) and Novara’s goals conceded in the last 5 is 1.6, so BTTS - Yes is the stronger signal; I estimate 68% for Yes and 32% for No.

The assessment is based on xG: Vicenza has xG_for 1.56, Novara xG_against 1.52, so expected home goals ≈ (1.56+1.52)/2 = 1.54; similarly the away expected ≈ (1.34+1.10)/2 = 1.22, total xG = 2.76. Season-wide 67% of Vicenza’s matches and 59% of Novara’s matches finish over 1.5 goals, which combined with the total xG >> 1.5 provides strong support for Over 1.5 (I rate it 74%). Although season Over 2.5 rates are only 39% for Vicenza and 24% for Novara, the last 5 matches for both teams show Over 2.5 at 60% and Vicenza averages 1.8 goals in the last 5, so Over 2.5 has moderate chances (56%). Over 3.5 is unlikely: season-wide only 28% and 24% of matches exceed this threshold, and total xG 2.76 is well below 3.5, thus Under 3.5 82%.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Vicenza win at full-time (X/1): Vicenza had a half-time draw in 61% of home matches and Novara in 47% of away matches, so a deadlock after 45 minutes is the safest assumption. After the break the hosts possess a clear offensive edge — they average 0.72 goals in the second half versus Novara’s 0.35, and the hosts’ xG is 1.56 compared to the visitors’ 1.34; additionally Novara concedes 1.52 xG per match on average while Vicenza concedes only 1.10. Therefore, given a half-time draw the likelihood is greater that Vicenza will complete the turnaround: in my assessment half-time draw scenarios distribute roughly as X/1 = 24%, X/X = 19% and X/2 = 11%. Form analysis supports this projection — in the last five matches Vicenza have won 60% of games, Novara 20%, and the hosts average 1.6 points after the break in the last five matches versus 1.0 for the visitors. Due to the high share of draws this season (50% for Vicenza and 65% for Novara) I also assign significant weight to X/X (19%) and 2/2 (14%) as alternatives, while hosts leading at the break is relatively rare (11%), which is why I gave greater weight to scenarios with a half-time draw.