Victoria Września vs Grom Nowy Staw: match statistics

Grom Nowy Staw have the stronger chance of winning: they have won 3 of their last 5 away matches, while Victoria Września have drawn all 5 of their most recent games. The visitors average 2.4 goals per game away from home, compared with the hosts’ 1.67 at home, although their edge in chance quality is marginal, with average xG of 1.14 and 1.18 respectively. The difference in goals scored is partly explained by shooting accuracy: 29% for Grom versus 18% for Victoria. Both defences concede chances, allowing 2.4 and 2.33 goals per game respectively in these conditions, so the visitors’ advantage is not decisive. Victoria’s run of five consecutive draws and the closely matched xG figures make a draw a significant possibility.

Both teams have a high rate of matches in which both sides score: 83% for Victoria and 80% for Grom, compared with 70% league-wide. In each team’s last 5 matches, this outcome occurred 4 times, indicating that it is not merely a reflection of earlier results. Victoria have recently averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Grom have scored 2.8 and conceded 2.6, so both defences are giving opponents chances. This is supported by the teams’ average xG conceded: 1.69 for the hosts and 2.07 for the visitors. Although Grom’s xG created is a moderate 1.14, neither team has yet finished a match without scoring, making BTTS - Yes significantly more likely.

At least 2 goals have been scored in every match played by either team so far, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal in the data. Victoria average 2.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per match, while Grom average 2.4 in both categories, pointing to an open game. Higher lines are also supported by the figures: Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Victoria’s matches and 80% of Grom’s. However, the xG data warrants caution at these lines: Victoria average 1.35 xG, compared with the 2.07 xG conceded by Grom, while Grom generate 1.14 xG against the 1.69 conceded by Victoria. Therefore, with a forecast of 3.80 goals, I’m backing Over 1.5 as the most likely bet rather than relying solely on the high scores in their matches so far.

The strongest signal in favor of a draw at half-time and full-time is Victoria’s run: it has drawn all of its last five matches, and in four of them the score was also level at half-time. Grom has won two of its last five matches, but has also lost two, so its form does not provide a clear basis for backing an away win. Both teams are capable of scoring: this season, Victoria averages 2.67 goals per match and Grom 2.4, increasing the likelihood of a closely contested game, even if both sides find the net. The main risk to the X/X pick is Grom’s effectiveness after the break—it averages 1.6 goals in the second half, compared with Victoria’s 1.17—so a draw at half-time followed by an away win remains a significant alternative scenario. Nevertheless, the consistency of the hosts’ draws, particularly across their last five matches, most strongly supports the score remaining level in both halves.