Victoria Września vs Lech Poznań II: match statistics

Victoria Września holds a clear statistical advantage over the last 5 matches: the hosts scored 6 goals (avg. 1.2 per match) and recorded 2 wins, while Lech Poznań II have 4 goals (0.8 per match) and 0 wins. Defensively Victoria conceded 8 goals in five games (1.6 per match), whereas Lech II conceded 12 (2.4 per match), yielding a goal difference of -2 versus -8. Points and form further support this — the hosts average 1.2 points per match over the last 5, the visitors only 0.2, and the visitors’ run is 'dllll' (1 draw, 4 losses). Given superior attacking efficiency (1.2 vs 0.8 goals per match), fewer goals conceded and two wins, I consider Victoria most likely to win; I assess their probability at approximately 65%, draw 20% and a Lech win 15%.

Recent 5-game indicators strongly favor BTTS - Victoria Września had BTTS in 80% of matches (4/5), Lech Poznań II in 60% (3/5). Offensively Victoria scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches (1.2 per game), Lech only 4 (0.8), but both are defensively vulnerable — Victoria conceded 8 (1.6), Lech a worrying 12 (2.4). xG supports Lech’s goal-scoring potential (1.6 xG per game vs 0.96 xG for Victoria), while xG against shows 1.6 for Victoria and 1.34 for Lech, indicating both teams allow clear chances. Additionally, Lech’s poor form (recent 'dllll') and high goals conceded (12 in 5) suggest the visitors, despite problems, will create opportunities; Victoria has a stable 80% BTTS at home. Considering 80% vs 60% BTTS, average goals conceded 1.6 and 2.4, and xG 0.96 vs 1.6, I assign 72% to BTTS (Yes) and 28% to No BTTS, backing 'Yes'.

The analysis is based on xG from the last 5 matches: Victoria Września has an average xG of 0.96 with xG conceded 1.60, while Lech Poznań II has xG 1.60 with xG conceded 1.34. From these values I project 1.15 goals for Victoria (average of 0.96 and 1.34) and 1.60 for Lech II (average of 1.60 and 1.60), totaling 2.75 goals, which places the match above the 2.5 threshold. Additionally, both teams had Over 2.5 in 80% of their last 5 matches (Victoria 80%, Lech II 80%), and BTTS occurred in 80% for the home side and 60% for the away side, suggesting goals from both teams. In the last 5 matches Victoria scored 6 and conceded 8 (1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per match), while Lech II scored 4 and conceded 12 (0.8 and 2.4 per match), indicating a weak Lech II defense and potential for a higher goal tally. Considering the projected 2.75 goals and strong Over 2.5 signals (80% in the last 5 matches) along with BTTS, the best line to back is Over 2.5 — I estimate the probability of Over 2.5 at approximately 75%.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows a home advantage: Victoria averages 1.2 points per match and has won 40% of fixtures (2 of 5), while Lech II averages 0.2 points and has 0% wins. Both teams frequently draw at the break — hosts in 60% of matches, visitors in 50% — yielding roughly a 55% probability of a half-time draw. Victoria scores an average of 1.2 goals per match versus Lech’s 0.8; by half-time they score 0.8 goals vs. 0.75 for the visitors, and after the break the hosts average 0.4 goals compared to 0.25 for Lech’s reserves. The visitors concede an average of 2.4 goals per match versus 1.6 conceded by the hosts, so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with the hosts winning at full-time (X/1).