Victoria Września vs Noteć Czarnków: match statistics
Victoria Września vs Noteć Czarnków: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Victoria Września played Noteć Czarnków in 3 Liga Group 2 (Poland). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Victoria Września: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Noteć Czarnków: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Victoria Września scores 1.13 and concedes 1.48 goals per match. Noteć Czarnków scores 1.43 and concedes 1.48. League average: 2.94 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Victoria Września 48%, Noteć Czarnków 43%. Over 2.5: Victoria Września 52%, Noteć Czarnków 48%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Noteć Czarnków has higher xG: 1.77 vs 1.18. Victoria Września: 2.6 shots per match, Noteć Czarnków: 9.4.
Match halves
Victoria Września: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.43. Noteć Czarnków: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.74.
Goals by minute
Victoria Września: 0-15 (7 goals). Noteć Czarnków: 46-60 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3 Liga Group 2: 2.94 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Noteć Czarnków has a clear advantage in key metrics: away they record a 45% win rate and average 1.64 goals scored with xG 1.62, while Victoria at home wins only 27% of matches and has average xG 0.87. The difference in chance creation is significant — Noteć averages 13.22 shots per game (5.11 on target) away, whereas Victoria at home manages only 4 shots (2 on target), which translates into more opportunities for the visitors. The home defense looks weaker: Victoria concedes on average 1.82 goals at home with average xG against 2.47, while Noteć concedes 1.73 goals away and has xG against 1.4. In the last 5 matches Noteć recorded 2 wins, scored 4 goals and averaged 1.2 points, while Victoria has 1 win, 5 goals scored and 0.8 points on average, further favoring the visitors. Considering higher finishing effectiveness (33 goals this season vs 26), better chance creation and a higher away win rate, I expect a Noteć victory; suggested probabilities are 20% for the home side, 25% for a draw and 55% for the visitors.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistics indicate a clear Lean towards BTTS - Yes — the home side generates 2.37 xG per match and records 7.67 shots on target from 17.5 total shots, while Noteć concedes 1.4 xG and allows 1.73 goals per game. The visitors average 1.64 goals per match and have a high conversion rate of 13%, and Victoria have only 17% clean sheets this season, increasing the likelihood that Noteć will score. Despite seasonal BTTS rates of 42% (Victoria) and 45% (Noteć), both below the league average of 51%, Victoria have produced BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, and Noteć have conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game in that period. The gap between the home xG (2.37) and their actual goals per game (1.25) suggests the hosts create many chances that should yield goals, and Noteć’s high conversion (13%) raises the chance of a goal from the away side. Therefore I project BTTS - Yes at 62% vs 38% for No as the strongest signal from the data.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG analysis points to a goals-friendly game: home xG is 2.37 while Noteć’s defense xG conceded is 1.40, yielding Victoria’s expected goals ≈1.89; Noteć’s xG is 1.62 versus Victoria’s defense 1.01 yielding ≈1.32 expected, total ≈3.21 goals. The league average is 2.96 goals per game this season, Victoria has Over1.5 in 75% of matches and Noteć in 73%, with Victoria scoring at least 1 goal in 100% of games and Noteć in 82% — a strong case for Over1.5 (I price it at 84%). Shot metrics show the hosts average 17.5 shots and 7.67 on target per match with a low finishing rate of 6%, which explains the xG 2.37 versus season goals scored 1.25 and suggests potential for goal outcomes. Season Over2.5 rates are 33% for Victoria and 64% for Noteć, and the league has 56% of matches over 2.5; given the combined expected goals of 3.21 I assign Over2.5 a 62% probability and therefore recommend betting Over 2.5 as the optimal line. I rate Over3.5 at about 30% because the projected 3.21 goals leaves limited margin above 3.5 and season Over3.5 rates are 25%/45%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I forecast a draw at half-time followed by a Notec victory (X/2). The home side average 0.42 goals by the break versus 0.7 for the visitors, and in the last five matches Notec scored 9 first-half goals compared to Victoria’s 3, giving the visitors an advantage in the opening phase. Victoria have a higher xG (2.37 vs 1.62) and more shots and shots on target (17.5 and 7.67 vs 13.22 and 5.11), but their low conversion rate of 6% versus Notec’s 13% suggests the hosts may waste many opportunities. Additionally, the hosts have a high proportion of clean halves (42% at half-time) and concede a lot of goals late in the first half (5 goals in minutes 31–45), whereas Notec have better league form (45% wins and 1.55 points per match vs 33% and 1.17 for the hosts), which favors the visitors in the full-time result.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Victoria Września | Noteć Czarnków | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 8% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.45 | 0.19 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 5.14 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Noteć Czarnków is 50% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Victoria Września · 1.2 pts / match - Noteć Czarnków
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Noteć Czarnków is 27% better for: goals scored per match.
1.13 goals / match - Victoria Września · 1.43 goals / match - Noteć Czarnków
Victoria Września scores in 65% of matches (15 of 23 matches), while Noteć Czarnków keeps a clean sheet in 26% (6 of 23 matches).
Noteć Czarnków scores in 61% of matches (14 of 23 matches), while Victoria Września keeps a clean sheet in 22% (5 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Victoria Września
Over / Under - Noteć Czarnków
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Victoria Września is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.17 pts / match - Victoria Września · 1.04 pts / match - Noteć Czarnków
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Victoria Września - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Noteć Czarnków - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Victoria Września
Noteć Czarnków
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3 Liga Group 2).
Teams vs league
| Victoria Września | Liga | Noteć Czarnków | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.61 | 2.94 | • 2.91 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 48% | 51% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 52% | 56% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 28% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 70% | • 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 70% | 72% | ▼ 61% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Victoria Września 1 - 0 - 0 Noteć Czarnków. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Victoria Września vs Noteć Czarnków?
The 3 Liga Group 2 match finished Victoria Września 0:0 Noteć Czarnków. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Victoria Września vs Noteć Czarnków?
Victoria Września score 1.13 goals per game on average and Noteć Czarnków 1.43. The 3 Liga Group 2 average is 2.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Victoria Września's matches and 43% of Noteć Czarnków's.
What form are Victoria Września and Noteć Czarnków in?
Over the last 5 games Victoria Września have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Noteć Czarnków 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Victoria Września vs Noteć Czarnków?
The statistical background for Victoria Września vs Noteć Czarnków — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.