Videoton vs Budafoki MTE: match statistics

Videoton (7th) holds a clear edge over Budafoki (15th) despite a similar short-term points return — both teams average 0.8 points per match over the last 5 fixtures, with the hosts scoring 5 goals to the visitors' 6 in that span. Videoton's primary advantage is defensive: they concede only 0.71 goals per home match on average, whereas Budafoki concede 2.07 goals on the road, and the average xG against is 1.07 vs 1.63 respectively, indicating substantially more high-quality chances conceded by the visitors. In attack xG figures are comparable (Videoton home xG 1.35 vs Budafoki away xG 1.39) and average goals are 1.14 for Videoton at home versus 1.00 for Budafoki away, with similar shot volumes (10.92 vs 10.29) and shots on target (4.08 vs 3.86). Additionally, the hosts keep a clean sheet in 50% of home appearances and have won 43% of home matches, while Budafoki win only 21% and lose 79% of away games, making a home victory more likely than a draw or an away success.

I back BTTS - Yes because Videoton averages 1.07 goals per match and Budafoki 1.00, while Budafoki concede as many as 2.07 goals on average this season versus 1.27 conceded by Videoton. xG confirms both teams create chances: Videoton xG 1.30, Budafoki xG 1.39, with xG against 1.41 vs 1.63, indicating realistic scoring opportunities from both sides. In the last 5 matches Budafoki have BTTS at 60% (Videoton 40%); the visitors have scored 6 and conceded 8, hosts have scored 5 and conceded 6, showing Budafoki’s greater tendency for matches with goals at both ends. Additionally, Budafoki’s matches this season show Over 2.5 in 57% of games and Over2.5+BTTS in 43%, while the league BTTS rate is 47%, so signals point toward a goal/goal outcome. Considering Budafoki’s weak defence (48 goals conceded this season) and recent form, I assess BTTS probability at 62% for 'yes' and 38% for 'no'.

Based on xG: Videoton has an attacking xG of 1.30 while Budafoki concedes an average xG of 1.63, estimating 1.47 goals for the home side; conversely Budafoki’s attacking xG 1.39 vs Videoton’s xG against 1.41 gives 1.40 for the visitors, totaling 2.87 expected goals. Seasonal data confirms a tendency for goals — Videoton 36 scored/30 conceded (1.07 and 1.27 average), Budafoki 30 scored/48 conceded (1.00 and 2.07 average), and Over1.5 occurred 87% of the time for hosts and 79% for guests. The divergence in Over 2.5 (33% hosts vs 57% guests) indicates volatility, but the projected total of 2.87 yields an estimated ~55% probability for Over 2.5, above the league average of 44%. Additionally the visitors have Over0.5 at 100% and both teams have low clean sheet percentages (27% and 14%), supporting the likelihood of a second goal. In light of these figures the strongest, most predictable signal is Over 1.5 (est. 82%), therefore the recommendation is to back the over at the 1.5 line rather than the riskier Over 2.5 (55%) or Over 3.5 (32%).

The home side clearly dominate after the break: they average 1.73 points in the second half and win that period in 53% of matches, while the visitors only average 0.71 points and win second halves in 14% of cases. In the last five games the hosts led at the break in 60% of matches (3 of 5), and their average first-half goals rose to 0.8 versus the seasonal 0.27, indicating improved form in the first 45 minutes. The visitors concede an average of 1.14 goals after the break, have a negative second-half goal difference (-8) and only 10 points gained after the break, which points to defensive issues after the interval. Considering similar xG (1.30 for the hosts vs 1.39 for the visitors) and the hosts’ higher season-long average points (1.13 vs 0.64), the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and the hosts winning the match (HT/FT: 1/1).