Videoton vs Kozármisleny: match statistics

I back an away win (2) due to a clear form advantage — Kozármisleny has collected 13 points in the last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), averaging 2.6 points per match, while Videoton has only 3 points (1 win, 4 losses), averaging 0.6 points per match. In attack the visitors scored 9 goals in their last 5 games versus just 5 for the hosts, and with superior defense from Kozármisleny (4 goals conceded compared to Videoton’s 8) this yields a distinct edge. A 4–1 difference in wins over the last five fixtures and the better goal figures (9–4 for the visitors vs 5–8 for the hosts) indicate Kozármisleny manages risk better and generates more high-quality opportunities. The lack of additional match data (many fields are zero) increases the weight of the last-5 observations, therefore I assign a 65% probability to an away win, 20% to a draw and 15% to a home win.

Kozármisleny has BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Videoton only 40%, so the BTTS signal is driven mainly by the visitors. In the last 5 matches Videoton averages 1.0 goals scored and concedes 1.6, whereas Kozármisleny scores 1.8 and concedes 0.8, suggesting the visitors are clearly more effective in attack (1.8 vs 1.0) and the hosts concede more often (1.6 conceded). xG confirms both sides create chances: Videoton has attack xG 1.37 versus xG against Kozármisleny 1.35, and Kozármisleny has attack xG 1.27 versus xG against Videoton 1.62 — both values hover around ~1.3 xG. Form also favors the visitors (Kozármisleny 'dwwww' — 4 wins and a draw, Videoton 'wllll' — 1 win and 4 losses), which increases the likelihood the visitors will find the net. Considering 80% vs 40% BTTS, average goals 1.8 vs 1.0 and xG ~1.3 on both sides, I assign BTTS 70% and No BTTS 30%.

In the last 5 matches Videoton scored 5 goals (1.0 per game) and conceded 8 (1.6 per game), while Kozármisleny scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and conceded 4 (0.8 per game). xG values over those 5 matches are 1.37 for Videoton and 1.27 for Kozármisleny, yielding a combined expected xG = 2.64. Both teams had 60% of matches over 2.5 goals in the last 5 rounds, and BTTS percentages are 40% (home) and 80% (away), indicating a propensity for goals from both sides. Based on the combined xG = 2.64 and an average total goals of 2.8 (1.0+1.8) I choose the 2.5 line for Over — estimated probability for Over 2.5 is 62% versus 38% for Under 2.5. I rate Over 1.5 at about 85%, while Over 3.5 is less likely (around 28%), therefore the best signal is to play Over 2.5.

In the last five matches Videoton scored a total of six first-half goals (0.8 on average), while Kozármisleny scored five first-half goals (0.6 on average), so the hosts score more often before the break. Both teams held a lead at the break in 40% of their recent games, and a half-time draw also occurred in 40% of cases, making the 1/X and X/X scenarios realistic. The picture after half-time is, however, reversed: Kozármisleny averages 1.2 second-half goals, while Videoton scores only 0.2 and concedes 1.2 on average after the break, giving the visitors a clear advantage in the second half. Form confirms this — the hosts are on a run of WLLLL and average 0.6 points in their last five matches, while the visitors are DWWWW with an average of 2.6 points; therefore the strongest signal is a Kozármisleny turnaround after the break, so I select HT/FT 1/2 as the most likely scenario (single highest probability 24%).