Videoton vs Soroksár SC: match statistics

I back the home win (1): Videoton has a clear defensive edge at home, conceding just 0.58 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 58% of games, while Soroksár concedes 1.83 goals on average away and records only 17% clean sheets. In the last 5 outings Videoton has scored 7 and conceded 2, averaging 2.2 points per game in that period, whereas Soroksár has scored 5 and conceded 8, averaging 0.8 points per game. Offensively the hosts generate 1.41 xG at home versus 1.27 xG for the visitors on the road and attempt more shots on average 11.64 to 9.42, indicating better quality chances despite Videoton’s lower shot conversion (8% vs 15% for Soroksár). Over the season both teams have 31 goals scored, but the defensive gap is clear: Videoton have conceded 24 goals and Soroksár 42, with a home goal difference of +8 for Videoton versus -5 for Soroksár away. Considering form stability, superior xG and the hosts’ defensive superiority, I assign Videoton a 68% chance to win, 17% for a draw and 15% for an away win.

Season-long stats strongly support BTTS - Yes: Soroksár have 83% of matches with both teams scoring, Videoton 58%, and their combined average of ~71% is well above the league 47%. Both teams produce a combined xG of ~2.68 (Videoton 1.41 vs Soroksár 1.27), above the league average 2.52, indicating elevated goal potential. Soroksár average 4.25 shots on target with a conversion rate of 15%, versus 3.58 and 10% for Videoton, so the visitors have real attacking potency to score. Season-long average goals conceded are 1.67 (Videoton) and 1.83 (Soroksár), and Soroksár have conceded 42 goals this season versus 24 for Videoton; however, Videoton have conceded only 2 goals in their last 5 matches (0.4 avg), which slightly weakens the BTTS signal. Despite the short-term defensive improvement from the home side, the dominant season metrics (notably Soroksár’s 83% BTTS) prevail, so I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 76% versus 24% No.

The xG-based model projects a total of ~2.99 expected goals: home xG 1.41 vs xG conceded to Soroksár 1.72 → ~1.57 for Videoton, and away xG 1.27 vs xG conceded to Videoton 1.57 → ~1.42 for Soroksár. Seasonal Over metrics confirm this picture: Over 1.5 occurred in 75% of Videoton’s matches and 92% of Soroksár’s matches (average 83.5%), while Over 2.5 is 50% vs 83% (average 66.5%). Both teams regularly find the net (BTTS 58% for Videoton and 83% for Soroksár) and produce 3.58 vs 4.25 shots on target with conversion rates of 10% vs 15%, which supports a goals-on-both-sides scenario. Consequently the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5 (forecast 88% for over vs 12% for under), Over 2.5 has moderate backing (~68%/32%), and Over 3.5 is unlikely (~29%/71%).

I favour the 1/1 scenario (home team leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time), because Videoton led at the break in 6 home matches (50%) and finished home matches with a win in 42% of appearances, while Soroksár wins only 8% of matches. At Half-Time the hosts average 0.58 goals scored and 0.25 conceded (a lead of ~0.33 goals), whereas the visitors average 0.5 scored and 0.67 conceded by the break, which supports Videoton holding a lead at the break. In the last 5 matches Videoton has a 60% win rate and 40% draws (form: WWDDW) and averages 0.6 goals by Half-Time, while Soroksár has 20% wins and 60% losses in the last 5 (LDLLW), reinforcing the scenario of maintaining the lead. xG and shot volume confirm a moderate home advantage: xG 1.41 vs 1.27 and 11.75 shots per match vs 9.42 for the away team, though the visitors’ higher conversion (15% vs 10%) also gives some chance of a draw or a turnaround, hence a meaningful but smaller probability for X/1 and X/X scenarios.