Vihren Sandanski vs CSKA Sofia II: match statistics

Vihren Sandanski have scored 13 goals and conceded only 2 in their last 5 matches, with a record of 4 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 0.4 goals conceded per match and earning 2.6 points per match over this period. CSKA Sofia II have scored 9 and conceded 4 in their last five fixtures; they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per match and 2.0 points per match. Goal difference over the last 5 matches is +11 for Vihren versus +5 for CSKA II; the hosts score on average 0.8 more goals per game and concede 0.4 fewer. Considering the clear attacking efficiency advantage (2.6 vs 1.8 goals per game) and superior defensive record (0.4 vs 0.8 goals conceded per game), as well as the hosts being unbeaten in their last five matches, I predict a home win and estimate probabilities: Home 62%, Draw 20%, Away 18%.

In the last 5 matches both teams have produced BTTS in 40% of cases (Vihren 40%, CSKA II 40%), providing a baseline 40% for “yes”. However, Vihren scored 13 goals in those 5 matches (avg. 2.6) and conceded only 2 (avg. 0.4), while CSKA II scored 9 (1.8) and conceded 4 (0.8), indicating the hosts dominate offensively and rarely allow the opponent to score. In xG terms both teams generate similar attacking values at 1.61 xG each, but Vihren has lower xG against at 1.07 versus 1.33 for CSKA II, which further supports Vihren more often keeping a clean sheet. Considering Vihren’s low goals conceded average (0.4) and better form (Vihren: 4 wins and 1 draw vs CSKA II: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), I assess the probability of BTTS at 35% for “yes” and 65% for “no”, therefore I recommend selecting “no”.}

In the last 5 matches Vihren scored 13 goals (2.6 per game) and CSKA II scored 9 goals (1.8 per game), indicating a clear offensive tendency. Based on xG: both teams have recent xG of 1.61, with Vihren’s defense conceding 1.07 xG and CSKA II’s defense 1.33 xG, yielding a forecast of 1.47 xG for the home side and 1.34 for the visitors (total 2.81). Historical figures support this approach — Vihren had 80% of recent matches over 2.5 goals, CSKA II 60%, while a Poisson model on the 2.81 mean estimates ~77% probability for Over 1.5 and ~53% for Over 2.5. Vihren conceded only 2 goals in the last 5 matches (0.4 avg) versus 4 conceded by CSKA II (0.8 avg), and BTTS occurred in 40% for both, reducing the risk of a goalless result. On this basis the strongest signal is a bet on the Over line at 1.5 — the high expected total of 2.81 goals and 77% probability of exceeding that threshold justify choosing this line.

Data show that the away team often holds the lead at the break — in the last 5 matches the away side led at half-time in 60% of cases (3 of 5), while the home side did so in only 40% (2 of 5). At the same time, the home team is significantly stronger after the break: the home side’s average goals in the second half is 1.8 versus 0.6 for the away team, and the home team won the second half in 80% of matches (4 of 5). Overall the home team won 80% of the last 5 matches (4 of 5) with an average of 2.6 goals scored versus 1.8 for the away side and an average of 0.4 goals conceded versus 0.8, which suggests a capacity for a turnaround. Considering that the away team often leads at half-time (60%), but the home team has the advantage in second halves (1.8 vs 0.6 and 80% second-half wins), the most likely scenario is the away team leading at the break and the home team winning at full-time (HT/FT 2/1).