Vihren Sandanski vs Etar: match statistics

Etar sit 2nd in the table, while Vihren Sandanski are 7th, and the visitors have won 3 of their 6 league matches, suffering just one defeat. Away from home, Etar create significantly more: averaging 18 shots, 7.5 shots on target and an xG of 2.22, compared with Vihren’s 16 shots, 7.67 shots on target and xG of 1.94 at home. The visitors’ edge is also evident in their finishing, as they convert 17% of their attempts into goals and score an average of 3 goals away from home, while Vihren score 1.33 goals at home with an 8% conversion rate. However, Vihren remain unbeaten in their last 5 matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, and all three of their home games ended level, increasing the likelihood of a draw. Etar should enjoy more possession, as they average 70% away from home compared with Vihren’s 51%, but both defences concede more than 1.3 goals per match, making a narrow away win the most likely outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: BTTS occurred in 75% of Vihren’s matches and in all of Etar’s games, compared with the league average of 48%. Neither team has recorded a single match without scoring, while Etar has also failed to keep a clean sheet in every game. Over the last 5 matches, both sides had an 80% BTTS rate, averaging 1.8 goals scored by Vihren and 1.4 by Etar. Their attacking potential is supported by xG figures of 1.97 for the hosts and 2.22 for the visitors, while Etar averages 7.5 shots on target per match compared with Vihren’s 4.25. The BTTS scenario is more likely than at least one team failing to score, as both defences concede an average of 1.0 and 1.5 goals respectively, with their last five matches producing an average of 1.2 goals conceded each.

The profile of both teams clearly points to goals: Vihren averages 1.5 goals scored, while Etar averages as many as 3.0, with the visitors conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match. Their creative potential is also high, with average xG of 1.97 for the hosts and 2.22 for Etar, while the visitors register an average of 7.5 shots on target compared with Vihren’s 4.25. Over 1.5 goals was recorded in 75% of Vihren’s matches and in all of Etar’s fixtures, while both teams scored at least once in 100% of their matches. Across their last five appearances, Vihren averaged 3.0 total goals per match and Etar 2.6, while both teams scored in 80% of those games. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the broad support from the offensive statistics and the absence of any Etar matches below this line significantly reduce the risk of a low-scoring game.

The strongest signal points to Vihren leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle, as the hosts have been ahead after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches and have not lost a single first half. During the same period, Vihren have conceded no goals before the break, while Etar have been trailing at half-time in 60% of their matches, scoring an average of just 0.4 goals in the first half. The hosts are also unbeaten in their last five appearances, recording 40% wins and 60% draws, whereas the visitors have suffered defeats in 20% of their matches. Etar do create plenty of chances, with an average xG of 2.22 and 7.5 shots on target, but their very poor first-half efficiency and Vihren's advantage during this phase of the match reduce the visitors' chances of completing a turnaround. The 1/1 scenario is therefore the most likely, although Vihren's high average of 1.2 goals conceded after half-time also increases the risk of a full-time draw.