Víkingur vs NSÍ: match statistics

NSÍ sit top of the table with a record of 10 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses and 27 goals scored, while Víkingur are 4th with 5 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses and 19 goals. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 11 goals; NSÍ have won 4 of 5 and average 2.4 points per game in that period, while Víkingur have 3 wins and 2 draws with an average of 2.2 points per game. At home Víkingur average 1.71 goals scored and concede 0.86 with an average xG of 1.81, whereas NSÍ away average 2.14 goals scored and concede 1.57 with xG 1.70. Víkingur average 6 shots on target per match versus 5 for NSÍ, but the visitors have higher efficiency (conversion 16% vs 13%) and a much lower share of goalless games (14% vs 29%). Given the home side’s unbeaten run at home (0% defeats), 43% clean sheets and lower xG against (1.11 vs 1.56), combined with NSÍ’s high effectiveness, the most likely outcome is a draw.

The strongest signal against BTTS - Yes is Víkingur’s home defense: they concede just 0.29 goals per home match and record a clean sheet in 71% of home games, while the seasonal BTTS rate for hosts is only 29%. NSÍ averages 2.14 goals scored per game and has 71% of matches with BTTS this season, conceding on average 1.57 goals, which indicates they can score but are also vulnerable defensively. From an xG perspective Víkingur produces 1.78 xG at home, while NSÍ concedes 1.56 xG per match, theoretically giving the hosts opportunities to score. Shot stats are similar (14.29 vs 13.57 shots, both 5.0 on target), but Víkingur have lower finishing efficiency (12% vs 16% for NSÍ), so the superiority in chance volume does not translate cleanly into goals. The final uncertainty factor is form: in the last 5 matches Víkingur have BTTS in 60% versus 40% for NSÍ, which weakens the dominant seasonal clean sheet signal. Considering Víkingur’s strong home defense (71% CS) against NSÍ’s offensive profile, I project a 70% probability of No BTTS and 30% for BTTS - Yes.

Averaging offense and defense: Víkingur has xG_for 1.78 and xG_against 1.15, NSÍ has xG_for 1.70 and xG_against 1.56, which when averaged yields expected goals of 1.67 for the home side and 1.43 for the visitors (total 3.10). Seasonally NSÍ scores 2.14 goals on average versus Víkingur’s 1.71, and in the last 5 matches both teams have netted 11 goals each (avg. 2.2 per game), supporting a higher-scoring outcome. With λ=3.10 the Poisson distribution estimates approximately Over1.5 ≈82%, Over2.5 ≈60% and Over3.5 ≈37%, hence a greater probability for the over lines. However, note Víkingur’s very solid defense (seasonConcededAVG_home 0.29 and 71% of matches with a clean sheet), which explains the zero contribution to Over3.5 for the home side, despite NSÍ’s high Over1.5 share (86%). As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (recommended) due to the combined xG=3.10 and NSÍ’s dominant seasonal over metrics.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win after 90 minutes (X/1), because Víkingur have won 100% of their home matches and were level at the break in 5 of 7 games (71%). The hosts led at half-time in only 2 of 7 matches (29%), so the prevailing pattern is a draw HT with a turnaround in the second half in favour of Víkingur. Second-half statistics support this: Víkingur average 2.71 points in the second half and win 86% of second halves, while NSÍ win only 43% of second halves. Defensively Víkingur concede an average of 0.29 goals at home and keep 71% clean sheets, whereas NSÍ concede 1.57 goals and keep 14% clean sheets, which favours a home victory. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.78 versus 1.70 for the visitors, and at half-time the hosts score an average of 0.71 goals against 0.86 for the visitors, suggesting a low-scoring HT and a decision after the break.