Viktoria Köln vs Hansa Rostock: match statistics

Hansa Rostock sit 3rd and remain unbeaten after 4 rounds, while Viktoria Köln are eighth with a record of 2 wins and 2 defeats. The visitors have won both of their away matches so far, scoring an average of 3.5 goals, while the hosts also score 3 goals per home game but concede as many as 3. Hansa also create more high-quality chances: their average away xG is 1.99 compared with Viktoria Köln’s 1.45 at home, while shots on target stand at 8 to 3.5 per match. Neither defense has kept a clean sheet yet, but Viktoria have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches, increasing the chances of an effective Rostock attack. The hosts should pose a threat with an average 63% possession and a 23% shot conversion rate, but the visitors’ stronger away record and superiority in chance creation make Hansa Rostock the preferred pick.

The BTTS signal is very strong, as both teams have recorded goals for both sides in 100% of their matches, well above the league average of 57%. Viktoria Köln average 2.0 goals scored, while Hansa Rostock average 3.5, with both teams conceding 2.0 goals per game. In their last five matches, BTTS landed in 80% of cases for both sides, while their average goals conceded were 1.8 and 2.4 respectively. Their attacking potential is also supported by high xG figures: 2.04 for the hosts and 1.99 for the visitors over the entire season. Additionally, neither side has kept a clean sheet or failed to score in a match so far, making BTTS - Yes the more likely outcome.

The profile of both teams clearly favors goals: Viktoria Köln score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Hansa Rostock average as many as 3.5. In their last five matches, the hosts recorded an average total of 3.8 goals, whereas Rostock’s games produced as many as 4.6 goals. Both teams have scored and conceded in 100% of their league matches so far, and over 1.5 goals has landed in every game. Their creative potential is also high, with average xG of 2.04 for Viktoria and 1.99 for Hansa, alongside 15.5 and 16.0 shots per match, respectively. The safest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as even with some regression from the very high-scoring results, the data from both sides strongly supports at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hansa Rostock win after the match, as the visitors have scored 3.5 goals per game in their matches to date and won 100% of them, while Viktoria have drawn all of their matches. Hansa have a clear advantage in the first halves: they average 1.5 goals before the break and have accumulated 2.0 points per half, compared with Viktoria’s 0.5 goals and 0.5 points. At the same time, the last five matches suggest a more even start, with both teams scoring 0.8 goals before half-time, while Hansa conceded an average of 1.2 goals during that period. After the break, however, the visitors are particularly dangerous, averaging 2.0 goals compared with the hosts’ 1.5, while the second halves of their last five matches produced an average of 2.6 goals. Both teams regularly find the net—each has scored in 100% of their matches to date—but Hansa’s superior shot conversion rate, 22% compared with 13%, further supports the forecast of a late turnaround in their favour.