Viktoria Plzeň vs Teplice: match statistics

Viktoria Plzeň holds a clear offensive advantage: they have scored 47 goals this season versus Teplice's 25, and at home they average 1.69 goals per match compared to just 0.85 goals that Teplice produce away. The quality of created chances confirms this with higher xG — Plzeň records 2.03 xG at home, while Teplice manage 1.18 xG on the road, and the hosts average 17.38 shots (6.54 on target) versus the guests' 10.23 (3.31 on target). Recent form over the last five matches favors the hosts: Plzeň averages 1.4 points per game in their last five (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), whereas Teplice average only 0.8 points and have not won in that period (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss). Defensively the hosts are slightly more stable at home (1.08 goals conceded and xG against 1.08) than the visitors away (1.23 goals conceded and xG against 1.71), and Teplice fail to score in 38% of away matches versus just 15% for Plzeň. In light of these comparisons I predict a home victory.

Statistical analysis indicates BTTS - No is more likely: Viktoria Plzeň's season BTTS rate at home is 46% versus Teplice's 54% away, but in the last 5 matches Plzeň had BTTS in only 20% of games, while Teplice in 60%. Plzeň keeps a clean sheet in 46% of home matches, whereas Teplice keep a clean sheet away in just 31%, giving the home side a real defensive edge. The visitors score on average 0.85 goals over the season and 0.6 goals in the last 5 matches, with 3.31 shots on target and an 8% conversion rate, which limits their scoring chances. The hosts have 47 goals scored, create 1.36 xG at home and record 3.77 shots on target with a 10% conversion, therefore I rate 'No' as more probable (65%) than 'Yes' (35%).

The xG model and statistics indicate a moderately high goal potential: xG for Viktoria Plzeň is 1.36 versus 1.18 for Teplice, and xG against is 1.41 (Plzeň) and 1.71 (Teplice), yielding expected goals of 1.61 for the home side and 1.31 for the visitors (total 2.92). With combined λ = 2.92, a Poisson distribution gives roughly a 79% probability of at least 2 goals and about 56% for 3+ goals, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Both teams have a season share of matches with over 1.5 goals at 62%, and in the last 5 matches Plzeň has xG = 2.05 and 60% of games Over 2.5, while Teplice has xG = 1.39 and only 20% Over 2.5, which further increases the chance of at least 2 goals. Plzeň averages 10.85 shots per match with a 10% conversion (avg 1.08 goals), and Teplice 10.23 shots with 8% conversion (0.85 goals), supporting a more aggressive goal scenario. Risks include Plzeň’s clean sheet rate at 46% and Teplice’s BTTS percentage of 54%, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the most likely and safest bet.

Viktoria Plzeň led at the break in 38% of home matches, while Teplice led away in only 8%, giving the home side a clear advantage in the first half. The hosts also have a higher xG of 1.36 versus the visitors’ 1.18, more shots on target (3.77 vs 3.31) and better conversion (10% vs 8%), making them more efficient offensively. In the last five matches Viktoria led at the break in 40% and won 40% of those five (2 of 5), whereas Teplice has not won any of their last five (0%) and were level at half-time in 80% of cases, which increases the likelihood of the hosts maintaining a lead. Additionally, Viktoria have kept a clean sheet at half-time in 77% of home games and average 0.54 goals by half-time versus 0.31 for the visitors, therefore I select the 1/1 scenario (lead at the break and Half-Time/Full-Time home win) as the strongest.