Vila Nova vs Athletic Club: match statistics
Vila Nova vs Athletic Club: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vila Nova played Athletic Club in Serie B (Brazil). The match was played on 4 May 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Vila Nova: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Athletic Club: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vila Nova scores 1.83 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Athletic Club scores 1.33 and concedes 1.33. League average: 2.23 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vila Nova 83%, Athletic Club 83%. Over 2.5: Vila Nova 67%, Athletic Club 50%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Vila Nova has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.21. Vila Nova: 12.7 shots per match, Athletic Club: 10.3.
Match halves
Vila Nova: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 1.33. Athletic Club: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Vila Nova: 61-75 (4 goals). Athletic Club: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.23 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1) because Vila Nova shows better form and a clear numerical advantage. In the last 5 matches the hosts have 3 wins and 2 draws with 9 goals scored, while Athletic have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with 6 goals. Vila Nova at home averages 11.67 shots and 4.33 on target with xG 1.29, while Athletic away average only 8.67 shots and 3 on target with xG 0.95, so the hosts create more high-quality chances. Defensively the hosts concede 1.33 goals at home with xG against 1.23, and the visitors concede 1.67 goals away with xG against 2.21, which increases the risk of goals conceded for Athletic. Considering the advantage in shots, xG (+0.34) and average points from the last 5 matches (2.2 vs 0.8), I assign a 65% probability to a Vila Nova win, 20% to a draw and 15% to an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Signals for BTTS - Yes are strong: season BTTS rate is 67% for Vila Nova and 100% for Athletic Club, and in the last 5 matches both teams have 80% BTTS. Both sides consistently score and concede — season figures: Vila Nova 11 scored / 8 conceded, Athletic Club 8 scored / 8 conceded; in the last 5 Vila Nova 9 scored / 6 conceded, Athletic Club 6 scored / 8 conceded. xG and shot stats indicate Vila Nova creates more chances: attacking xG 1.46 and 5.67 shots on target, versus Athletic’s defense that concedes 2.21 xG; Athletic’s attacking xG is 0.95 with 3.0 shots on target but a high conversion rate of 19%, translating to an average of 1.67 goals this season. A key signal is 0% clean sheets for both teams this season — neither has kept a clean sheet — while the league BTTS average is only 52%. Given Athletic’s 100% season BTTS, Vila Nova’s 67% and both teams’ 80% BTTS in the last 5, I assign an 88% probability to BTTS vs 12% for No Goal and recommend a BTTS - Yes bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Vila Nova’s season xG is 1.46, with 1.48 over the last 5 matches; Athletic has a season xG of 0.95 and 1.04 in the last five, while Athletic concedes 2.21 xG on average this season. Averaging season and last-5 values yields expected goals of 1.68 for Vila Nova and 1.21 for Athletic, totaling 2.89. Season-long over 1.5 rates are 67% for the home side and 100% for the visitors, and both teams have 60% of matches over 2.5 in the last 5 games, so I rate Over 1.5 at 88% and Over 2.5 at 62%. Over 3.5 is unlikely, since Vila Nova is 0% seasonally and Athletic 33%, giving an Over 3.5 forecast of 26%. Additionally, Vila Nova averages 12.0 shots and 5.67 on target with an 8% conversion rate, while Athletic averages 8.67 shots and 3.0 on target with a 19% conversion rate, which suggests the hosts generate chances and the visitors have the quality to convert—supporting an Over market (and Both Teams to Score).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back 1/1: Vila Nova led at the break in 2 of 3 cases (67%) and scores on average 1.0 goal by half-time versus 0.67 for Athletic, which strongly supports the home side leading after 45 minutes. Vila Nova creates more chances (xG 1.46 vs 0.95 for Athletic, 12.0 shots vs 8.67 and 5.67 shots on target vs 3.0), so they hold both a qualitative and quantitative advantage over the visitors. Although Athletic are more efficient in finishing (19% vs 8%) and their matches go BTTS in 100% of cases, most of their goals come after the break (on average 1.67 goals in the second half and 2 goals in the 76–90 minute period), which is more likely to reduce than overturn Vila Nova’s HT advantage. Recent form over the last five matches also favors the home side (60% wins and an average of 1.8 goals in the last five games vs 20% and 1.2 for Athletic), increasing the likelihood of holding the lead and winning. Therefore the strongest signal is 1/1 (HT lead 67% and superior xG/shots), although the 1/X variant has some justification given the visitors’ finishing efficiency.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vila Nova | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vila Nova is 120% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - Vila Nova · 1 pts / match - Athletic Club
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vila Nova is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.83 goals / match - Vila Nova · 1.33 goals / match - Athletic Club
Vila Nova scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Athletic Club keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 6 matches).
Athletic Club scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Vila Nova keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vila Nova
Over / Under - Athletic Club
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Athletic Club is 120% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.83 pts / match - Vila Nova · 1.83 pts / match - Athletic Club
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vila Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Athletic Club - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vila Nova
Athletic Club
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Vila Nova | Liga | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.17 | 2.23 | ▲ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 83% | 51% | ▲ 83% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 43% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 31% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 83% | 59% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 75% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Vila Nova 1 - 1 - 0 Athletic Club. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Vila Nova vs Athletic Club?
The Serie B match finished Vila Nova 1:1 Athletic Club. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Vila Nova and Athletic Club?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Vila Nova won 1, Athletic Club won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Vila Nova vs Athletic Club?
Vila Nova score 1.83 goals per game on average and Athletic Club 1.33. The Serie B average is 2.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 83% of Vila Nova's matches and 83% of Athletic Club's.
What form are Vila Nova and Athletic Club in?
Over the last 5 games Vila Nova have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Athletic Club 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vila Nova vs Athletic Club?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Vila Nova vs Athletic Club: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.