Vila Nova vs Fortaleza: match statistics

Vila Nova possesses a clear home advantage — winning 75% of home matches, averaging 2.0 goals per game and never recording a home match without a goal (FTS 0%), with xG 1.59 and 4.88 shots on target per game. Fortaleza struggle offensively on the road: only 0.44 goals per away game, 56% of away matches without scoring, 3.11 shots on target and a very low conversion rate (~3%). The visitors, however, are in better overall form over the last 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 2.0 points per game) and have conceded only 3 goals in that span, which reduces the risk of a one-sided contest. In terms of chance quality the hosts have higher xG (1.59 vs 1.35) and lower xG against (1.17 vs 1.67 for the visitors away), and the home goal difference is +7 versus Fortaleza’s -5 on the road. Considering 75% home wins, zero FTS at home and the opponent’s poor away efficiency, I project a Vila Nova victory — estimated probabilities: ~60% home win, 20% draw, 20% Fortaleza win.

Fortaleza averages only 0.44 goals per game this season with a shot conversion rate of just 3%, and their away BTTS is 22%, which significantly reduces the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Vila Nova scores 1.89 goals per game, has xG 1.72 and averages 5.56 shots on target, so the home side are favorites to score at least once, but they keep a clean sheet in 44% of matches and their season BTTS rate is 44%. In the last 5 matches Fortaleza has xG 1.78 and scored 6 goals (1.2 per match), while Vila Nova conceded 9 goals in 5 matches (1.8 per match), giving Fortaleza a short-term chance to score. Nevertheless, seasonal metrics — Fortaleza’s low goals-per-game 0.44, 3% conversion and only 22% BTTS away — carry more weight than episodic form signals, therefore I assess BTTS probability at about 30% vs 70% No Goal. Recommendation: back "No" as the more likely outcome with moderate risk, considering the combination of season BTTS 44%/22% and recent form.

Based on xG: Vila Nova has an attacking xG of 1.72 while Fortaleza’s defense concedes xG of 1.67, yielding ~1.70 expected goals for the home side; Fortaleza posts xG 1.35 against the home defense xG 1.21, i.e. ~1.28 expected goals, total = 2.98. Vila Nova averages 16.11 shots and 5.56 on target per match with a 12% conversion, whereas Fortaleza averages 13.0 shots, 3.11 on target and only 3% conversion, which favors the hosts to increase the scoreline. Season stats show Vila Nova has 78% of matches over 1.5 and 67% over 2.5, while Fortaleza is 33% and 22% respectively, so the form asymmetry supports a higher-scoring game. A Poisson model with combined λ = 2.98 gives probability over 1.5 ≈ 80%, over 2.5 ≈ 57% and over 3.5 ≈ 35%, reflecting both xG and differences in efficiency. The strongest signal is over 1.5 (≈80%), therefore I recommend backing the over at 1.5; over 2.5 has a moderate edge (≈57%), while over 3.5 remains too risky (≈35%).

The most likely scenario is 1/1 — Vila Nova leading at the break and winning the match. The hosts average 1.89 goals per match versus Fortaleza’s 0.44, have xG 1.72 vs 1.35, register 5.56 shots on target versus 3.11 and convert at 12% efficiency compared to the visitors’ 3%. Vila Nova lead at the break in 56% of matches and score on average 0.78 goals by half-time, while Fortaleza lead at the break in only 22% and average 0.22 goals by half-time, which favours the hosts in the first half. Fortaleza have the better recent form (last 5 matches: 60% wins vs Vila Nova’s 40%), but their away goals average is only 0.44 with a low 3% conversion, therefore I assign the highest weight to the 1/1 outcome (42%) with reserves for X/1 (18%) and X/X (15%).