Vila Nova vs Náutico: match statistics
Vila Nova vs Náutico: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vila Nova played Náutico in Serie B (Brazil). The match was played on 20 June 2026. Venue: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga. Final score: 4:3.
Current form
Vila Nova: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Náutico: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vila Nova scores 1.38 and concedes 0.92 goals per match. Náutico scores 1.38 and concedes 1.08. League average: 2.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vila Nova 54%, Náutico 31%. Over 2.5: Vila Nova 38%, Náutico 38%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Náutico has higher xG: 1.74 vs 1.48. Vila Nova: 13.9 shots per match, Náutico: 16.3.
Match halves
Vila Nova: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.92. Náutico: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Vila Nova: 61-75 (7 goals). Náutico: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.31 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Vila Nova (2nd) shows strong home metrics: 7 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses this season, 18 goals scored and 12 conceded, and in the last five matches overall they are 4-0-1 (form: wwwwl) with 6 goals for and 2 against. Náutico (7th) have a 6-2-5 record with 18 scored and 14 conceded; in their last five matches overall they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (wwlld), scoring 9 and conceding 7, averaging 1.4 points per match. Defensively the advantage lies with the home side: Vila Nova concedes 0.83 goals per home match versus Náutico’s 1.29 conceded on the road, and average xG against is 0.96 for Vila Nova versus 1.42 for Náutico, which suggests the visitors generate more expected chances but the home defense limits their efficiency. In attack both teams are similar: Vila Nova has average xG 1.58 and 1.67 goals per home match with 4.67 shots on target and an 11% conversion rate, while Náutico has xG 1.55 and 1.71 goals away with 4.29 shots on target and a 12% conversion, however the visitors failed to score in 29% of away matches whereas the hosts have 0% scoreless home games. Considering the unbeaten home record (0% losses), higher 2.4 points per match in the last 5 for Vila Nova versus 1.4 for Náutico, and better goal protection, I project a home win; probabilities estimated at 65% home, 20% draw and 15% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Vila Nova at home has 0% BTTS and 50% clean sheets; seasonally they score 1.0 and concede 0.83, and in the last 5 home matches they conceded only 2 goals (0.4 per match), which strongly favors No Goal. Náutico away has BTTS 57% and averages 1.71 goals scored (last 5: 1.8), but concedes 1.29 seasonally and 1.4 in the last 5 (7 conceded in L5), so the visitors can score but have clear defensive vulnerabilities. xG values show Vila Nova creates 1.97 xG at home and allows 0.79 xG, while Náutico has 1.55 xG for and 1.42 xG against; the low 0.79 xG against for the hosts suggests real chances for the visitors will be limited. Weighing 0% home BTTS, 50% clean sheets and the hosts' last 5 with 2 conceded versus the guests' 7 conceded, I prefer the 'No' scenario at 65% probability versus 35% for 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG the expected goals are: Vila Nova xG_for 1.97 vs xG_against_away 1.42 → ≈1.70 goals for the home side; Náutico xG_for 1.55 vs xG_against_home 0.79 → ≈1.17 goals; total ≈2.87. With an average of 2.87 the Poisson distribution yields roughly a 78% probability for Over 1.5, 55% for Over 2.5 and 32% for Over 3.5 (corresponding Under: 22%, 45%, 68%). Náutico scores 1.71 goals per game this season and has 71% of matches with over 1.5 goals and 43% with over 2.5, while Vila Nova averages 1.0 goal, 33% of matches over 1.5 and 50% clean sheets; the season frequency of both teams scoring for Vila Nova is 0%. Higher Náutico efficiency (conversion 12% vs 5% for Vila Nova) and high xG for both teams (1.97 and 1.55) support goal potential, although the high share of home clean sheets limits confidence in Over 2.5. As a result the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (recommended); Over 2.5 remains moderate (55%), and Over 3.5 is weakly supported (32%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Vila Nova holds a clear advantage in expected goals: xG 1.97 versus Náutico's 1.55, and a higher shots average (18.33 vs 14.57), indicating game control and more chance creation. Nevertheless, hosts were level at the break in 50% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 50%) and average only 0.33 goals by half-time compared to the visitors' 0.43, so the most likely half-time outcome is a draw. In the second half Vila Nova shows superior form (last 5 matches: 4 wins, 80% win rate) and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of fixtures across the season, which gives them a realistic chance to win after the break. Náutico frequently scores late (5 goals between the 76th and 90th minutes) and has 57% of matches with both teams scoring, but a worse xG conceded of 1.42 suggests defensive vulnerability. For these reasons the safest scenario is a draw at half-time and a Vila Nova victory at full-time (HT/FT = X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vila Nova | Náutico | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 26% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vila Nova is 71% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Vila Nova · 1.4 pts / match - Náutico
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vila Nova is 17% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.92 goals / match - Vila Nova · 1.08 goals / match - Náutico
Vila Nova scores in 85% of matches (11 of 13 matches), while Náutico keeps a clean sheet in 31% (4 of 13 matches).
Náutico scores in 62% of matches (8 of 13 matches), while Vila Nova keeps a clean sheet in 31% (4 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vila Nova
Over / Under - Náutico
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Vila Nova is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.15 pts / match - Vila Nova · 1.08 pts / match - Náutico
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vila Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Náutico - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 46%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vila Nova
Náutico
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Vila Nova | Liga | Náutico | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.31 | 2.31 | ▲ 2.46 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 54% | 51% | ▼ 31% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 44% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | • 31% | 30% | • 31% |
| Goal before half-time | • 62% | 62% | • 62% |
| Goal after half-time | • 77% | 77% | ▲ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Vila Nova vs Náutico?
The Serie B match finished Vila Nova 4:3 Náutico. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Vila Nova vs Náutico?
Vila Nova score 1.38 goals per game on average and Náutico 1.38. The Serie B average is 2.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 54% of Vila Nova's matches and 31% of Náutico's.
What form are Vila Nova and Náutico in?
Over the last 5 games Vila Nova have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Náutico 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vila Nova vs Náutico?
The statistical background for Vila Nova vs Náutico — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.