Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña: match statistics

Both teams have collected 8 points from their last 5 matches, recording 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, so the difference in current form is marginal. Villarreal have scored 7 goals during this period, but have conceded 5 goals in 3 matches this season so far, highlighting problems with defensive protection. Deportivo are unbeaten this season with a record of 1 win and 2 draws, while their defence has conceded only 3 goals to date. Away from home, Deportivo have drawn 100% of their matches, averaging 1 goal scored and 1 conceded, with an xG of 0.86 and opponents’ xG at 1.30. The hosts may benefit from slightly better recent finishing, but the visitors’ defensive stability and tendency to draw away from home primarily point towards a share of the spoils.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in 100% of their league matches so far, and neither has kept a clean sheet yet. Villarreal score an average of 2.0 goals, while Deportivo average 1.0, with both sides conceding an identical average of 1.0 goal per match. In their last five appearances, both teams had BTTS in 60% of matches; the hosts scored an average of 1.4 goals, while the visitors averaged 1.2. Villarreal’s attack has recently created chances worth 1.89 xG, while their defence allows opponents 1.38 xG, which clearly supports a Deportivo goal. Deportivo’s lower 1.08 xG and just 0.8 goals conceded on average across their last five matches reduce confidence in the pick, but the overall indicators still point towards BTTS - Yes.

The projected total of 2.53 goals places the match clearly closer to the 2–3 goal range than to a scenario featuring at least four goals. Villarreal have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last five matches, while Deportivo have scored 1.2 goals per game and the visitors’ defense has allowed an average of just 0.8. However, the hosts’ attack has a solid quality base, with an xG of 1.89 over their last five matches compared with Deportivo’s average 1.27 xG conceded. On the other hand, Deportivo’s average xG is only 1.08, while Villarreal allow opponents 1.38 xG, suggesting a single goal for the visitors rather than an open, high-scoring game. The Under 3.5 goals line also has an edge because only 20% of Deportivo’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, and neither team has recorded a match exceeding 4.5 goals so far.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Villarreal win, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Deportivo. Villarreal nevertheless have a clear offensive edge: their average xG is 1.12 versus 0.86 for the visitors, while they score an average of 2.0 goals per home match compared with Deportivo’s 1.0 away goals per game. The hosts also average 9.5 shots per match, compared with just 6.0 for Deportivo, and earn 2.0 points per game versus their opponents’ 1.0. The visitors have yet to record an away win, drawing 100% of such matches, which reinforces the scenario of a balanced first half without maintaining a favorable result until the final whistle. In the second halves of their last five matches, Villarreal have not lost a single game, drawing 80% of them; therefore, home advantage and greater chance creation should ultimately swing the result in favor of the hosts.