Vis Pesaro vs Ostia Mare Lidocalcio: match statistics

Vis Pesaro have a clear attacking edge at home, averaging 2 goals per match, while Ostia Mare Lidocalcio are yet to score away from home and have failed to find the net in 100% of such fixtures. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 8 shots compared with the visitors’ 6, while their xG stands at 1.17 versus just 0.81 for Ostia Mare. Ostia Mare have lost both of their away matches so far, and in their last five appearances they have recorded 3 defeats and scored just 5 goals. Vis Pesaro also have defensive issues, conceding 10 goals in their last five matches, while their home xG against is 2.11, significantly increasing the likelihood of a closely contested result. Nevertheless, home advantage and the visitors’ very poor away finishing make a narrow Vis Pesaro victory the most likely outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is primarily driven by recent form: each team recorded BTTS in 60% of their previous five matches. During this period, Vis Pesaro conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game, with an xG against of 2.15, while Ostia Mare also conceded 10 goals in five appearances and allowed opponents 1.90 xG. The visitors averaged 1.0 goal and generated 1.04 xG in their last five matches, giving them a realistic route to exploit the hosts’ defensive weaknesses. The main risk to the pick is that Ostia Mare failed to score in their only league match so far this season; however, the sample is very small and Vis Pesaro have not kept a clean sheet. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is marginally more likely.

Both teams have shown clear defensive problems in their last five matches, conceding 2.0 goals per game. During this period, Vis Pesaro have scored 1.2 goals and Ostia Mare 1.0, while their opponents’ average xG stands at 2.15 and 1.90 respectively, indicating that scoring chances are being allowed on a regular basis. Over 2.5 goals were recorded in 80% of Vis Pesaro’s last five matches and 60% of Ostia Mare’s, compared with a league average of just 45%. The hosts’ matches have produced an average of 3.2 goals so far, while the visitors’ away games have averaged 3.0, both clearly above the league average of 2.45. The safest edge therefore lies with Over 1.5, as the combination of weak defences and a projected total of 2.83 goals significantly reduces the likelihood of a one-goal-or-fewer outcome.

The strongest scenario is Ostia Mare leading at the break and maintaining that advantage until full time, although the data indicate only moderate confidence in this selection. Vis Pesaro were trailing at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of just 0.4 goals before the break and conceding 1.0. Ostia Mare also average 0.4 goals before half-time, but have a better defensive record in this phase, conceding 0.8 goals compared with the hosts’ 1.0, while they went into the break level in 40% of their matches. The hosts have a higher attacking xG, 1.51 compared with 0.81, but their defence allows opponents an xG as high as 2.68, whereas the visitors allow 1.46. After the break, Ostia Mare still do not impress in terms of efficiency, but Vis Pesaro conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match in their latest run, increasing the visitors’ chances of seeing out even a narrow lead.