Vitória Guimarães II vs Varzim: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates very even chances for both teams. Vitória Guimarães II has shown solid form in the last five matches (3 wins, 2 PPG), yet their home record is mixed with 40% wins and 40% losses. Varzim is in excellent overall form (4 wins in the last 5 matches, 2.4 PPG), but away results are unpredictable (30% wins, 40% losses). A key factor is the hosts' advantage in possession (56% vs 47%) and higher xG (1.61 vs 1.09), suggesting greater game control. However, Varzim has better shooting efficiency away (14% vs 10%) and a solid defense in recent games (only 3 goals conceded in the last 5 matches). Considering the goal difference of both teams (0 goal difference in their respective matches) and the history of draws, a split of points seems the most likely outcome, though a slight edge for the hosts stems from the home field factor.
Vitória Guimarães II vs Varzim: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vitória Guimarães II played Varzim in Liga 3 (Portugal). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Vitória Guimarães II: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Varzim: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vitória Guimarães II scores 1.10 and concedes 0.90 goals per match. Varzim scores 1.43 and concedes 0.90. League average: 2.17 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vitória Guimarães II 43%, Varzim 52%. Over 2.5: Vitória Guimarães II 33%, Varzim 43%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 36%.
xG, shots and style
Vitória Guimarães II has higher xG: 1.38 vs 1.28. Vitória Guimarães II: 10.2 shots per match, Varzim: 9.6.
Match halves
Vitória Guimarães II: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67. Varzim: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
Vitória Guimarães II: 61-75 (8 goals). Varzim: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga 3: 2.17 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 36%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates very even chances for both teams. Vitória Guimarães II has shown solid form in the last five matches (3 wins, 2 PPG), yet their home record is mixed with 40% wins and 40% losses. Varzim is in excellent overall form (4 wins in the last 5 matches, 2.4 PPG), but away results are unpredictable (30% wins, 40% losses). A key factor is the hosts' advantage in possession (56% vs 47%) and higher xG (1.61 vs 1.09), suggesting greater game control. However, Varzim has better shooting efficiency away (14% vs 10%) and a solid defense in recent games (only 3 goals conceded in the last 5 matches). Considering the goal difference of both teams (0 goal difference in their respective matches) and the history of draws, a split of points seems the most likely outcome, though a slight edge for the hosts stems from the home field factor.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vitória Guimarães II | Varzim | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Varzim is 20% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Vitória Guimarães II · 2.4 pts / match - Varzim
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Varzim is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
1.1 goals / match - Vitória Guimarães II · 1.43 goals / match - Varzim
Vitória Guimarães II scores in 76% of matches (16 of 21 matches), while Varzim keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
Varzim scores in 71% of matches (15 of 21 matches), while Vitória Guimarães II keeps a clean sheet in 48% (10 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vitória Guimarães II
Over / Under - Varzim
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Varzim is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.43 pts / match - Vitória Guimarães II · 1.52 pts / match - Varzim
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vitória Guimarães II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Varzim - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vitória Guimarães II
Varzim
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga 3).
Teams vs league
| Vitória Guimarães II | Liga | Varzim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.17 | ▲ 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 46% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 36% | ▲ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 48% | 33% | ▼ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 57% | 64% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 81% | 73% | ▲ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Vitória Guimarães II 0 - 1 - 1 Varzim. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Vitória Guimarães II vs Varzim?
The Liga 3 match finished Vitória Guimarães II 3:0 Varzim. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória Guimarães II and Varzim?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Vitória Guimarães II won 0, Varzim won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Vitória Guimarães II vs Varzim?
Vitória Guimarães II score 1.10 goals per game on average and Varzim 1.43. The Liga 3 average is 2.17 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 36% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Vitória Guimarães II's matches and 52% of Varzim's.
What form are Vitória Guimarães II and Varzim in?
Over the last 5 games Vitória Guimarães II have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Varzim 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vitória Guimarães II vs Varzim?
The statistical background for Vitória Guimarães II vs Varzim — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.