Vitória Guimarães vs Alverca: match statistics
Vitória Guimarães presents decisively better home form with a 50% win rate and a positive goal difference (+2) at their own stadium. Alverca performs very poorly in away matches, losing as many as 64% of encounters and holding a negative goal difference (-10). The hosts have the advantage in key statistics: a higher average xG (1.46 vs 0.9), more shots on target (3.92 vs 2.91), and better possession (48% vs 40%). Alverca has not achieved any victory in their last five matches, earning just 0.6 points per match, while Vitória averages 1.2 points. The visitors' away form is alarming with a sequence of LDLWLWLLLLD, which, combined with the hosts' solid play on their own turf, argues for their certain victory.
Vitória Guimarães vs Alverca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vitória Guimarães played Alverca in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Vitória Guimarães: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Alverca: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vitória Guimarães scores 1.17 and concedes 1.48 goals per match. Alverca scores 1.00 and concedes 1.65. League average: 2.76 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vitória Guimarães 43%, Alverca 52%. Over 2.5: Vitória Guimarães 48%, Alverca 52%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Vitória Guimarães has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.08. Vitória Guimarães: 13.3 shots per match, Alverca: 9.0.
Match halves
Vitória Guimarães: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.61. Alverca: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Vitória Guimarães: 31-45+ (7 goals). Alverca: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.76 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Vitória Guimarães presents decisively better home form with a 50% win rate and a positive goal difference (+2) at their own stadium. Alverca performs very poorly in away matches, losing as many as 64% of encounters and holding a negative goal difference (-10). The hosts have the advantage in key statistics: a higher average xG (1.46 vs 0.9), more shots on target (3.92 vs 2.91), and better possession (48% vs 40%). Alverca has not achieved any victory in their last five matches, earning just 0.6 points per match, while Vitória averages 1.2 points. The visitors' away form is alarming with a sequence of LDLWLWLLLLD, which, combined with the hosts' solid play on their own turf, argues for their certain victory.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vitória Guimarães | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vitória Guimarães is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Vitória Guimarães · 0.6 pts / match - Alverca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vitória Guimarães is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.17 goals / match - Vitória Guimarães · 1 goals / match - Alverca
Vitória Guimarães is 11% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.48 goals / match - Vitória Guimarães · 1.65 goals / match - Alverca
Vitória Guimarães scores in 65% of matches (15 of 23 matches), while Alverca keeps a clean sheet in 22% (5 of 23 matches).
Alverca scores in 74% of matches (17 of 23 matches), while Vitória Guimarães keeps a clean sheet in 30% (7 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vitória Guimarães
Over / Under - Alverca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vitória Guimarães - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Alverca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vitória Guimarães
Alverca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Vitória Guimarães | Liga | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.65 | 2.76 | ▼ 2.65 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 46% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 48% | 56% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | • 30% | 30% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 72% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | • 78% | 79% | ▲ 91% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Vitória Guimarães 0 - 0 - 1 Alverca. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Vitória Guimarães vs Alverca?
The Liga NOS match finished Vitória Guimarães 1:1 Alverca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Vitória Guimarães vs Alverca?
Vitória Guimarães score 1.17 goals per game on average and Alverca 1.00. The Liga NOS average is 2.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Vitória Guimarães's matches and 52% of Alverca's.
What form are Vitória Guimarães and Alverca in?
Over the last 5 games Vitória Guimarães have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Alverca 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vitória Guimarães vs Alverca?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.