Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia: match statistics
Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vitória Guimarães play Casa Pia in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match date is 11 May 2026 at 21:15. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Vitória Guimarães: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Casa Pia: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vitória Guimarães scores 1.15 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Casa Pia scores 0.91 and concedes 1.68. League average: 2.68 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vitória Guimarães 41%, Casa Pia 47%. Over 2.5: Vitória Guimarães 44%, Casa Pia 44%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Vitória Guimarães has higher xG: 1.44 vs 1.00. Vitória Guimarães: 13.3 shots per match, Casa Pia: 8.8.
Match halves
Vitória Guimarães: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.65. Casa Pia: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.44.
Goals by minute
Vitória Guimarães: 61-75 (10 goals). Casa Pia: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.68 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
I predict a home win (1): Vitória Guimarães have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches and hold a 3-1-1 record (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), averaging 2 points per match, while Casa Pia have scored only 2 goals and sit at 0-1-4, averaging 0.2 points per match. Offensive metrics and chance creation favor Vitória: at home they average 1.63 goals per match, 13.38 shots with 4.19 on target and a 12% conversion rate, whereas Casa Pia away average 0.75 goals per match, 9.31 shots, 2.88 on target and an 8% conversion. Defensively the visitors also underperform — Casa Pia concede 1.94 goals away (56 this season) and have a 50% rate of away matches without scoring, while Vitória concede 1.13 at home and fail to score at home in only 19% of matches. xG metrics confirm the home advantage: Vitória’s average home xG is 1.46 versus Casa Pia’s away xG of 1.01, and xG against for the visitors away is 1.61 vs 1.26 for the hosts, suggesting more high-quality chances for Vitória and greater risk of concessions from Casa Pia. Considering Vitória’s 50% home win rate and +8 home goal difference, combined with Casa Pia’s run of 0 wins in 5 and 63% away loss rate, I assess probabilities at 70% home, 18% draw and 12% away.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vitória Guimarães | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vitória Guimarães is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Vitória Guimarães · 0.8 pts / match - Casa Pia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vitória Guimarães is 26% better for: goals scored per match.
1.15 goals / match - Vitória Guimarães · 0.91 goals / match - Casa Pia
Vitória Guimarães is 12% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Vitória Guimarães · 1.68 goals / match - Casa Pia
Vitória Guimarães scores in 65% of matches (22 of 34 matches), while Casa Pia keeps a clean sheet in 21% (7 of 34 matches).
Casa Pia scores in 56% of matches (19 of 34 matches), while Vitória Guimarães keeps a clean sheet in 29% (10 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Vitória Guimarães
Over / Under — Casa Pia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Casa Pia is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.06 pts / match - Vitória Guimarães · 1.18 pts / match - Casa Pia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vitória Guimarães - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Casa Pia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (10 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vitória Guimarães
Casa Pia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Vitória Guimarães | Liga | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.65 | 2.68 | • 2.59 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 48% | • 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 54% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | • 29% | 29% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 62% | 69% | • 68% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 80% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Vitória Guimarães 0 - 1 - 0 Casa Pia. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia?
The Liga NOS match finished Vitória Guimarães 0:1 Casa Pia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia?
Vitória Guimarães score 1.15 goals per game on average and Casa Pia 0.91. The Liga NOS average is 2.68 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Vitória Guimarães's matches and 47% of Casa Pia's.
What form are Vitória Guimarães and Casa Pia in?
Over the last 5 games Vitória Guimarães have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Casa Pia 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.