Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia: match statistics

I predict a home win (1): Vitória Guimarães have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches and hold a 3-1-1 record (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), averaging 2 points per match, while Casa Pia have scored only 2 goals and sit at 0-1-4, averaging 0.2 points per match. Offensive metrics and chance creation favor Vitória: at home they average 1.63 goals per match, 13.38 shots with 4.19 on target and a 12% conversion rate, whereas Casa Pia away average 0.75 goals per match, 9.31 shots, 2.88 on target and an 8% conversion. Defensively the visitors also underperform — Casa Pia concede 1.94 goals away (56 this season) and have a 50% rate of away matches without scoring, while Vitória concede 1.13 at home and fail to score at home in only 19% of matches. xG metrics confirm the home advantage: Vitória’s average home xG is 1.46 versus Casa Pia’s away xG of 1.01, and xG against for the visitors away is 1.61 vs 1.26 for the hosts, suggesting more high-quality chances for Vitória and greater risk of concessions from Casa Pia. Considering Vitória’s 50% home win rate and +8 home goal difference, combined with Casa Pia’s run of 0 wins in 5 and 63% away loss rate, I assess probabilities at 70% home, 18% draw and 12% away.

I assess BTTS as less likely because Casa Pia averages only 0.75 goals this season and just 0.4 goals in the last 5 matches (2 goals in last 5), while their season share of BTTS games is 38%. Vitória Guimarães has a season BTTS of 56% and averages 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches (10 goals in last 5), so the hosts are most likely to score, but they also concede 1.56 goals per game on average this season. Casa Pia generates xG 1.01 seasonally but actually scores 0.75 goals and has a low shot conversion of 8%, which suggests that their real scoring chance is depressed relative to xG. A simple estimate using average goals and xG places the BTTS probability around 34–40%, so I assign 37% to "Yes" and 63% to "No". As a result I pick 'No' as the strongest signal — higher likelihood that Vitória will score while Casa Pia will remain goalless due to poor form (last 5: 1 point and 2 goals scored) and low conversion.

The expected xG is approximately 1.25 for Vitória Guimarães and 1.18 for Casa Pia, totaling 2.43 expected goals in the match. Both teams show high rates above 1.5: Vitória records >1.5 in 75% of its home games, while Casa Pia does so in 81% of away matches, averaging roughly a 78% probability for Over 1.5. Additionally, Vitória has averaged 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches (10 goals in 5), whereas Casa Pia only 0.4 (2 goals in 5), and the difference in shooting efficiency (14% vs 8%) points to a higher likelihood of goals from open play. The 2.5 line is more balanced (estimated Over 2.5 around 48%) due to the discrepancy: home Over 2.5 only 31% versus away 63%, and an expected 2.43 being below 2.5. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, therefore I recommend playing over 1.5.

The strongest signal is a half-time draw and Vitória Guimarães to win the match (X/1): a half-time draw occurs in 38% of matches for both teams, while the home side led at the break in 31% of their games versus 19% for Casa Pia. In the last 5 matches Vitória has been particularly dangerous after the interval — they average 1.4 goals in second halves and win the second half in 60% of cases, whereas Casa Pia have not scored after the break in their last 5 matches (0.0) and have a 0% second-half win rate. Additionally, the home side have a better shot conversion rate (14% versus 8% for the opponents) and a higher average goals at half-time (0.63 versus 0.31), which increases the likelihood that they will stage a turnaround after the break. Although xG slightly favors Casa Pia (1.01 versus 0.91 for the hosts), the hosts’ superior efficiency and form over the last 5 matches (60% wins) tip the balance in Vitória’s favor. Given the seasonal proportion of draws for the hosts (50% draws) and the league average of approximately 2.69 goals per match, I also assign notable chances to X/X (18%) and 1/1 (20%) as alternatives.