Vitória Guimarães vs CD Nacional: match statistics
Vitória Guimarães, despite a recent dip in form (1 win in the last 5 matches), maintains solid home statistics with a 38% win rate and a neutral goal difference of 0. CD Nacional holds a mere 25% win rate in away fixtures and is currently enduring a poor run (0 wins in the last 4 away matches). The hosts hold the edge in possession (47% vs 43%) and possess a superior xG ratio on their home turf. While both teams display similar offensive efficiency, Nacional concedes an average of just 0.88 goals away, potentially complicating matters for the hosts. Considering home advantage and the visitors' recent struggles, Vitória Guimarães has a higher probability of securing a victory, though a draw remains a plausible outcome.
Vitória Guimarães vs CD Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vitória Guimarães played CD Nacional in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 2 January 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Vitória Guimarães: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. CD Nacional: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vitória Guimarães scores 1.00 and concedes 1.31 goals per match. CD Nacional scores 1.13 and concedes 1.40. League average: 2.69 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vitória Guimarães 31%, CD Nacional 60%. Over 2.5: Vitória Guimarães 38%, CD Nacional 40%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Vitória Guimarães has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.29. Vitória Guimarães: 13.0 shots per match, CD Nacional: 11.6.
Match halves
Vitória Guimarães: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.50. CD Nacional: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Vitória Guimarães: 31-45+ (6 goals). CD Nacional: 31-45+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.69 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Vitória Guimarães, despite a recent dip in form (1 win in the last 5 matches), maintains solid home statistics with a 38% win rate and a neutral goal difference of 0. CD Nacional holds a mere 25% win rate in away fixtures and is currently enduring a poor run (0 wins in the last 4 away matches). The hosts hold the edge in possession (47% vs 43%) and possess a superior xG ratio on their home turf. While both teams display similar offensive efficiency, Nacional concedes an average of just 0.88 goals away, potentially complicating matters for the hosts. Considering home advantage and the visitors' recent struggles, Vitória Guimarães has a higher probability of securing a victory, though a draw remains a plausible outcome.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vitória Guimarães | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 27% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vitória Guimarães is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Vitória Guimarães · 1 pts / match - CD Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
CD Nacional is 13% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Vitória Guimarães · 1.13 goals / match - CD Nacional
Vitória Guimarães is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.31 goals / match - Vitória Guimarães · 1.4 goals / match - CD Nacional
Vitória Guimarães scores in 56% of matches (9 of 16 matches), while CD Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 15 matches).
CD Nacional scores in 73% of matches (11 of 15 matches), while Vitória Guimarães keeps a clean sheet in 38% (6 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vitória Guimarães
Over / Under - CD Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
CD Nacional is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.06 pts / match - Vitória Guimarães · 1.33 pts / match - CD Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vitória Guimarães - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
CD Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 27%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vitória Guimarães
CD Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Vitória Guimarães | Liga | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.31 | 2.69 | ▼ 2.53 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 31% | 45% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 52% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 30% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 69% | 75% | ▼ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 69% | 75% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Vitória Guimarães vs CD Nacional?
The Liga NOS match finished Vitória Guimarães 2:1 CD Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Vitória Guimarães vs CD Nacional?
Vitória Guimarães score 1.00 goals per game on average and CD Nacional 1.13. The Liga NOS average is 2.69 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 31% of Vitória Guimarães's matches and 60% of CD Nacional's.
What form are Vitória Guimarães and CD Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Vitória Guimarães have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and CD Nacional 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vitória Guimarães vs CD Nacional?
The statistical background for Vitória Guimarães vs CD Nacional — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.