Vitória vs Grêmio: match statistics

Vitória have been very solid at home: they win 67% of their matches, score an average of 1.33 goals and concede just 0.75 per game, keeping a clean sheet in 67% of their appearances. Grêmio have not won a single away match, have suffered defeats in 67% of them and score just 0.50 goals per game, failing to find the net in 50% of their away fixtures. The hosts also create significantly more chances, averaging 13.17 shots and 4.25 shots on target compared with the visitors’ 8.75 and 2.08, while their average xG stands at 1.40 against Grêmio’s 0.95. Overall form has recently favored the visitors, who have collected 7 points from their last five matches compared with Vitória’s 3, but the difference in home performance and Grêmio’s very poor away efficiency clearly support the hosts. A controlled Vitória victory is the most likely outcome, probably in a low-scoring match.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Vitória’s very poor current scoring record: they have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of those fixtures. Grêmio averaged 1.0 goal during this period, but across the entire away season they have scored just 0.5 goals per match and failed to score in as many as 50% of those appearances. The hosts have greater attacking potential, recording 1.53 xG and 5.0 shots on target per game, compared with Grêmio’s 0.95 xG and 2.08 shots on target. Although Vitória have conceded an average of 1.4 goals recently, the visitors’ limited attacking output increases the likelihood that they will be the side to finish the match without scoring. Vitória’s season-long BTTS rate stands at 67%, but the current form of both teams, especially the hosts, is clearly weaker than this long-term picture suggests.

Vitória score an average of 1.75 goals at home, while Grêmio average just 0.50 goals per away match and have failed to exceed 1.5 goals in any game. The hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 13.92 shots and 5.00 shots on target compared with Grêmio’s 8.75 and 2.08, respectively. This points to Vitória’s offensive control, but not to an open, end-to-end game. In their last five matches, Vitória have scored just 0.4 goals per game, and only 20% of their matches have gone Over 2.5 goals. Crucially, the 3.5-goal line has not been surpassed in any of Grêmio’s matches, with 100% of those games finishing Under 3.5. The estimated 2.12 goals and the visitors’ limited scoring potential provide the strongest edge on Under 3.5.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Vitória were level at the break in 50% of their matches, compared with 58% for Grêmio; the visitors have not led at this stage in any match. The first half should also be cautious from a statistical perspective: the hosts average 0.67 goals in this period, while Grêmio average just 0.17, and over their last five matches the two teams scored only 0.2 and 0.4 goals before half-time, respectively. After the interval, Vitória’s advantage is more pronounced: they average 1.08 goals, compared with just 0.33 for Grêmio, while the hosts won the second half in 50% of matches versus 8% for the visitors. Across the season, Vitória average 2.00 points per match and have a 58% win rate, whereas Grêmio have collected just 0.33 points per away match, have not won any fixture, and have lost 67% of the time. The hosts’ weaker current form, with 0.6 points per match across their last five appearances, reduces confidence in the pick but does not eliminate Vitória’s advantage after half-time.