Vitória vs São Paulo: match statistics
Vitória vs São Paulo: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vitória played São Paulo in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Vitória: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. São Paulo: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vitória scores 1.00 and concedes 1.56 goals per match. São Paulo scores 1.50 and concedes 0.70. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vitória 44%, São Paulo 50%. Over 2.5: Vitória 33%, São Paulo 30%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
São Paulo has higher xG: 1.23 vs 1.19. Vitória: 10.4 shots per match, São Paulo: 10.8.
Match halves
Vitória: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.67. São Paulo: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 1.20.
Goals by minute
Vitória: 46-60 (3 goals). São Paulo: 46-60 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1). Vitória wins 75% of home matches, averages 1.5 goals scored and concedes only 0.5 goals per game. The home side averages 13 shots and 5 on target per match (conversion 12%), while São Paulo away averages 9.6 shots and 3.4 on target (conversion 10%), giving the hosts an advantage in both volume and quality of attempts. Average xG also favors Vitória: 1.45 xG per home match versus 1.08 xG for São Paulo on the road, and despite higher away possession for São Paulo (59% vs 40%) this does not translate into more goals (São Paulo scores 1.0 goals away). Vitória keeps a clean sheet in 75% of home games, whereas São Paulo records only 20% clean sheets away and fails to score in 20% of away matches, increasing the hosts’ chances of maintaining a lead. Considering similar recent form (both 1.4 points average in the last 5 matches), the superior conversion, shot volume and defensive metrics at home favor Vitória and give them roughly a 60% probability of victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Looking at the last 5 matches, Vitória had BTTS - Yes in 80% of games (4 of 5), scoring on average 2.0 goals and conceding 1.8, while São Paulo had BTTS - Yes in 40% (2 of 5) and in those five games averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Seasonally the indicators are mixed: Vitória has BTTS 40% versus São Paulo 60%, and the league BTTS average is 57%, which provides a general context favoring both teams scoring. In terms of xG over the last 5 matches Vitória has xG_for 1.81 and xG_against 1.86 (total ~3.67 xG per match), while São Paulo has 1.26 and 1.10 (total 2.36), suggesting Vitória’s matches generate more chances. Additionally the home side averages 4.0 shots on target from 12.0 attempts with a 17% conversion, versus 3.4 shots on target from 9.6 attempts and 10% conversion for the away team, so Vitória has an advantage in offensive efficiency. Considering Vitória’s high BTTS rate in the last 5 (80%), the league average of 57%, and the higher xG and effectiveness of the hosts, I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely and estimate it at about 68% vs 32% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Statistical analysis shows Vitória has a stronger home attack: on average 2.0 goals per match and xG 1.37 with 12.0 shots and a 17% conversion rate, while São Paulo averages 1.0 goal, xG 1.08, 9.6 shots and 10% conversion. Combining the hosts’ offense with the opponent’s defense (São Paulo concedes 0.8 goals on average and has xG against 1.15) I estimate expected goals: hosts about 1.45, visitors about 1.05, total around 2.50. A Poisson model with lambda=2.50 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈ 71%, Over 2.5 ≈ 46% and Over 3.5 ≈ 24%, indicating the strongest signal for the 1.5 line. Additionally, seasonal indicators support Over 1.5 (Vitória 80% of matches >1.5, São Paulo 60%), while values for 2.5 are lower (40% and 20%), so the risk for Over 2.5 is significantly higher. As a result I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the most probable and advantageous option based on xG, shots and seasonal percentages.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Vitória averages 2.0 goals per match this season versus São Paulo’s 1.0, and as hosts concedes only 0.6 goals while averaging 2.4 points per match, giving a clear home advantage. At the break Vitória led in 40% of matches and averages 0.6 first-half goals with 0.2 conceded, whereas São Paulo averages 0.0 first-half goals and 0.6 conceded, which favors Vitória leading at the 45-minute mark. The offensive profile is supported by xG of 1.37 for the hosts versus 1.08 for the visitors, along with 12 shots vs 9.6 and 4 shots on target vs 3.4 for São Paulo, with conversion rates of 17% vs 10% — meaning the hosts are more productive and more efficient. In the second half Vitória scores on average 1.8 goals versus São Paulo’s 1.2 and has a positive second-half goal difference (+5 vs +4), so if they lead at half-time they have a high probability of sealing the win. Therefore I assign the highest probability to Vitória leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1 — 36%); the second-strongest signal is a draw at half-time turning into a home win (x/1 — 24%); and the combined probability of a São Paulo final victory is around 16% (2/1 and 2/2 together).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vitória | São Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
São Paulo is 50% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Vitória · 1.5 goals / match - São Paulo
São Paulo is 123% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.56 goals / match - Vitória · 0.7 goals / match - São Paulo
Vitória scores in 78% of matches (7 of 9 matches), while São Paulo keeps a clean sheet in 30% (3 of 10 matches).
São Paulo scores in 80% of matches (8 of 10 matches), while Vitória keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vitória
Over / Under - São Paulo
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vitória - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
São Paulo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vitória
São Paulo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Vitória | Liga | São Paulo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.56 | 2.66 | ▼ 2.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 48% | ▼ 30% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 23% | ▲ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 76% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 75% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Vitória 1 - 0 - 1 São Paulo. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Vitória vs São Paulo?
The Serie A match finished Vitória 2:0 São Paulo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória and São Paulo?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Vitória won 1, São Paulo won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Vitória vs São Paulo?
Vitória score 1.00 goals per game on average and São Paulo 1.50. The Serie A average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Vitória's matches and 50% of São Paulo's.
What form are Vitória and São Paulo in?
Over the last 5 games Vitória have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and São Paulo 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vitória vs São Paulo?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.