Vllaznia Shkodër vs Bylis Ballsh: match statistics

Vllaznia is the favorite in this match: they sit 2nd and win 81% of home games, averaging 1.63 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per home match with a +18 home goal difference. The hosts generate more high-quality chances — home xG averages 1.78 with 5.19 shots on target and 14.63 shots overall, while Bylis away has only 1.01 xG, 2.13 shots on target and 7.81 shots per match. The visitors clearly struggle on the road: just 0.75 goals scored per away match, 1.75 conceded and 44% of away games without scoring, translating into only 6% away wins and a -16 goal difference. The last 5 matches show Vllaznia in a weaker offensive spell (3 goals in the last 5, form 1-2-2), while Bylis scored 6 goals and won 2 of their last 5; however, the hosts’ defensive edge (56% clean sheets at home) and markedly superior xG and shot volume give Vllaznia a significant advantage. On that basis I predict a home win.

Both teams have season BTTS rates close to the midline: Vllaznia 53% and Bylis 50% (league average BTTS 46%), providing an initial signal in favor of BTTS - Yes. Vllaznia averages 1.18 goals scored and concedes 0.94 per match, creating 10.12 shots with 4.0 on target, while Bylis posts a lower output of 0.75 goals and 7.81 shots (2.13 on target) and a weak defense - 44 goals conceded (1.75 per match). xG analysis indicates expected values around 1.36 for Vllaznia (xG_for 1.33 vs opponent xG_against 1.39) and 1.11 for Bylis (xG_for 1.01 vs Vllaznia xG_against 1.21), meaning both sides have realistic potential to score at least once. In the last 5 matches Bylis scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) and Vllaznia only 3 (0.6 avg), which slightly reduces confidence in the home side finding the net, but season clean sheet percentages are low - 24% for Vllaznia and 19% for Bylis, so both teams concede more often than they keep a clean sheet. Considering the above (seasonal BTTS 53%/50%, xG ~1.36 and 1.11, Bylis’s weak defense), I forecast BTTS - Yes as more likely and price it at approximately 60% versus 40% for No Goal.

xG analysis: Vllaznia has an attacking xG of 1.33, while Bylis’s defense concedes on average 1.39 xG, yielding an expected 1.36 goals for the home side; similarly Bylis has an attacking xG of 1.01 and Vllaznia’s defense concedes 1.21 xG, giving 1.11 for the visitors. Complementing this with actual season goals per match (Vllaznia 1.18, Bylis 0.75) produces forecasts of 1.29 for Vllaznia and 0.97 for Bylis, totaling 2.26 goals. A Poisson model with lambda = 2.26 gives probability of Over 1.5 at about 66% (1−P(0)−P(1)), Over 2.5 around 39% and Over 3.5 around 19%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Seasonal indicators support this: Vllaznia have 59% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Bylis 69%, and a higher average on-target shots 4.0 vs 2.13 favors greater danger from the hosts. Since Bylis concedes on average 1.75 goals per match versus Vllaznia’s 0.94 conceded, the risk of a game with at least two goals is elevated; therefore recommendation: Over 1.5.

Vllaznia led at the break in 5 matches (29% season rate), while a half-time draw occurred in 65% of their games; Bylis led at the break only once (6%). On average the home side scores 0.35 goals and concedes 0.12 in the first half, whereas the visitors average 0.25 scored and 0.75 conceded, indicating few goals before the break and a first-half defensive edge for Vllaznia. In the second half the hosts record an average total of 1.65 goals with 0.82 of those being their own, and the visitors total 1.50 goals with 0.50 scored by them, so most goals fall after the break—giving Vllaznia the opportunity for a turnaround. Additionally Vllaznia have higher xG (1.33 vs 1.01) and more on-target shots (4.0 vs 2.13), and their advantage in points and wins (1.53 points per game and 41% wins versus 0.56 points and 6% wins for the visitors) favors a full-time victory for the hosts. Considering the frequent half-time draws (65%) and the hosts’ greater effectiveness after the break, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Vllaznia win at full-time (X/1).