Vllaznia Shkodër vs Flamurtari: match statistics

I back the home win (1): Vllaznia holds a clear home advantage — 76% home win rate, averaging 1.53 goals scored and only 0.59 conceded per home match with a +16 goal differential at their stadium. The quality of chance creation favors the hosts: 14.53 shots and 5.12 shots on target per home game with xG 1.76, versus 9.71 shots, 2.94 on target and xG 1.18 for Flamurtari away. Defensively Vllaznia is also stronger — 53% clean sheets at home and xG against 1.17, while Flamurtari concedes 1.18 goals away on average and has xG against 1.63. However, the hosts’ poor recent run must be considered: in the last 5 matches Vllaznia have scored only 1 goal and average 0.2 points (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), whereas Flamurtari have 11 goals in their last 5 and average 2.2 points (3 wins, 2 draws). Considering Vllaznia’s seasonal home edge but also their sudden drop in form, I estimate a 58% probability of a home win, 20% for a draw and 22% for an away win.

In the season Vllaznia has BTTS in 61% of matches and Flamurtari in 53%, meaning both teams statistically record both teams to score more often than the league average of 46%. However, in the last 5 fixtures the discrepancy is large: Vllaznia has only 20% BTTS and scored a total of 1 goal (0.2 avg), while Flamurtari has 80% BTTS and 11 goals in five matches (2.2 avg). Season-long Vllaznia generates 1.32 xG per match versus Flamurtari’s 1.18 xG, but recent defensive numbers favor Flamurtari — over five games they concede 0.8 goals on average, while Vllaznia concedes 1.4, which limits Vllaznia’s chances to score. Additionally form (Vllaznia dllll vs Flamurtari dwwwd) and shots on target stats (Vllaznia 3.72 SOT vs Flamurtari 2.94 SOT) suggest Flamurtari will be more effective offensively and Vllaznia may remain inefficient, so the stronger signal from the data is No BTTS.

The xG model suggests ~1.48 xG for the home side (1.32 home attack vs 1.63 Flamurtari defensive average) and ~1.20 xG for the away side (1.18 away attack vs 1.22 home defensive average), totaling ~2.68 xG. Seasonal indicators confirm a propensity for goals: Vllaznia have 72% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Flamurtari 65%, and matches with both teams scoring occur in 61% and 53% of their games respectively. Additionally, the home team averages 3.72 shots on target, the visitors 2.94, and Flamurtari have scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (~75% probability); Over 2.5 is borderline (~50%), and Over 3.5 is less likely (~28%), so I recommend playing Over 1.5.

I select X/2 (draw at Half-Time, away win at Full-Time) as the strongest signal. Draws at the break are historically common: home teams were level at half-time in 44% of matches, away teams in 41%, and the average first-half goals are 1.11 (home) vs 1.12 (away), which favors a split of points by half-time. At the same time Flamurtari shows clear form — they have won 60% of their last five matches, scored 9 first-half goals in those five games (1.2 per match on average) and led at the break in 60% of those fixtures, while in second halves over the last five matches they have averaged 1.0 goals compared to the hosts’ 0.2. Vllaznia creates more chances by xG (1.32 vs 1.18) and more shots (10.78 vs 9.71, on target 3.72 vs 2.94), but the hosts’ poor form (0% wins in the last five) and the visitors’ superior second-half effectiveness indicate that Flamurtari is most likely to produce the turnaround in the second half.