Vllaznia Shkodër vs Partizani Tirana: match statistics

Vllaznia Shkodër have a slight advantage thanks to home-field advantage: in their only home match so far, they drew, but scored 2 goals, averaged 12 shots and 5 shots on target, and enjoyed 68% possession. The hosts also create chances worth 1.71 xG, while Partizani have scored just 1 goal in 2 matches throughout the season. Both teams’ recent form has been poor; however, Vllaznia have collected 5 points from their last five matches, compared with just 4 for Partizani, who have suffered three defeats in that span. Vllaznia’s defence remains vulnerable, conceding 11 goals in their last five appearances, while at home they allow opponents 1.81 xG, which significantly increases the likelihood of a draw. Nevertheless, the hosts’ greater attacking activity and Partizani’s poor finishing support a cautious pick on a Vllaznia win.

The strongest signal in favour of both teams scoring comes from their current form: BTTS occurred in 80% of Vllaznia’s last five matches and in 60% of Partizani’s games. During this period, Vllaznia averaged 1.2 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.2, while Partizani scored 0.8 and allowed opponents 1.8 goals. Their attacking potential is confirmed by recent xG figures of 1.60 for the hosts and 1.54 for the visitors, with xG against standing at 1.61 and 1.83 respectively. The hosts kept a clean sheet in only 50% of their matches so far, while their high tally of 11 goals conceded in their last five outings favours a Partizani goal. Despite the visitors’ limited season data, the current figures for both teams are more consistent with a scenario in which each side scores at least once.

Vllaznia’s last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals, with the team scoring 1.2 and conceding as many as 2.2. Partizani’s games were also open, averaging 2.6 goals, with 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded per match. The chance-creation potential is clearly higher than the finishing output so far, as the average xG from the last five appearances stands at 1.60 for Vllaznia and 1.54 for Partizani. The 2.5 line is close to even, but Over 1.5 is better supported by the fact that over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the hosts’ last matches and 60% of the visitors’ games. The projected total of 2.75 goals indicates that two goals are the most likely minimum scenario, which is why Over 1.5 holds the edge.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Vllaznia win after 90 minutes, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Partizani were trailing at that stage in 3 of their last 5 games. Vllaznia averaged only 0.4 goals scored before half-time, while their opponents averaged 0.6, which points to a cautious opening and a level scoreline. After the break, the hosts scored an average of 0.8 goals, whereas the visitors managed just 0.2; additionally, Partizani failed to score after half-time in 4 of their last 5 outings. The Tirana side lost 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game, compared with 1.2 conceded by Vllaznia. The hosts also have a higher seasonal xG of 1.18 and the advantage of playing at home, making them more likely to turn a balanced first half in their favour. In HT/FT terms, the most likely outcome is X/1.