Vllaznia Shkodër vs Skënderbeu Korçë: match statistics

Skënderbeu Korçë have shown clearly stronger form: they have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 10 points in their last five matches, while Vllaznia Shkodër have lost 4 of their 5 games and collected just 3 points. The visitors scored 7 goals during this period, 3 more than the hosts, while their defence conceded only 2 goals. Vllaznia scored just 4 goals and conceded as many as 12, averaging 2.4 goals conceded per match across their last five outings. The teams’ respective goal differences over this period are +5 for Skënderbeu and -8 for Vllaznia, so the visitors should be considered more likely to prevail. A draw remains possible due to the hosts’ home advantage, but the current trend strongly favours a Skënderbeu victory.

The stronger scenario is BTTS - No, as Skënderbeu have conceded only 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while their xG against is just 0.76. Vllaznia have scored only 4 goals during this period, averaging 0.8 goals per match, despite their average xG standing at 1.60, which indicates clearly poor finishing. The visitors have maintained a low number of goals conceded, and BTTS has occurred in just 20% of their last five appearances. The hosts, however, concede as many as 2.4 goals per game, so Skënderbeu have a solid basis for scoring. Nevertheless, the main risk to BTTS is Vllaznia’s limited chance of beating a well-organised visiting defence. BTTS - No does not exclusively mean a 0:0 result; the data particularly support the scenario in which at least Vllaznia fail to score.

The available data from the last 5 matches points to Vllaznia being in clearly weaker form: the team scored just 0.8 goals per game and conceded as many as 2.4. Over the same period, Skënderbeu averaged 1.4 goals, while their defense conceded just 0.4 goals per match, significantly limiting the hosts’ attacking prospects. The difference in defensive quality is also evident in xG against: Skënderbeu allowed opponents 0.76 xG, compared with 1.41 xG conceded by Vllaznia. Although 80% of Vllaznia’s last five matches produced Over 2.5 goals, only 20% of Skënderbeu’s games followed that pattern, which is why the projected total of 2.10 goals most strongly supports the Under 3.5 goals option.

Skënderbeu are showing clearly superior form: across their last five matches, they averaged 2.0 points and won 60% of their games, while Vllaznia managed just 0.6 points and lost 80% of their outings. The visitors are also considerably more defensively stable, conceding an average of 0.4 goals per match compared with 2.4 for the hosts. Before half-time, Skënderbeu had not conceded in any of their last five matches, led at the break in 40% of them, and posted a positive 3:0 goal difference, whereas Vllaznia scored just 0.2 goals per game during that period. After the break, the hosts still concede an average of 1.6 goals, while the visitors score 0.8, strengthening the scenario in which the away side preserves the advantage established in the first half. The most likely outcome is therefore HT/FT 1/1, with Skënderbeu leading at half-time and winning the match, although the high 60% rate of half-time draws for both sides leaves a significant chance of an X/2 turnaround.