Volos NFC vs Iraklis Thessaloniki: match statistics

Volos NFC are on a poor run, with four defeats in their last five matches and a 5:11 goal difference, but Iraklis have also conceded 11 goals over the same period. The hosts have the advantage in the standings, sitting 11th compared with their opponents’ 13th place, while their only win in the last five matches provides a slightly stronger reference point than Iraklis’ away-day struggles. The visitors lost their only away match so far 0:4, failed to score, averaged just 1 shot on target and created chances worth only 0.78 xG. Iraklis’ away defence allows opponents 2.76 xG and concedes an average of 4 goals, which significantly boosts Volos’ chances of ending their poor run. The match could be cautious given both teams’ problems, but the visitors’ weakness away from home points towards a home win.

BTTS - No is a slightly stronger pick, as Iraklis’s season data show 0% of matches with both teams scoring and 100% of games without a goal scored. In the available sample, the visitors average 0.0 goals, while their attacking xG stands at just 0.78, with only 1.0 shot on target per match. Volos also has a zero goals-per-match average in the season data, so its attack cannot be considered a reliable source of goals. However, the last five matches for both teams show an average of 1.0 goal scored and BTTS at 60%, which limits the advantage of the “No” pick. Crucially, Iraklis concede an average of 2.2 goals over their last five fixtures, meaning Volos could win without conceding, while the scenario of at least one team failing to score remains more likely.

In their last five matches, both teams averaged 1.0 goals scored, while also conceding as many as 2.2 goals per game, resulting in an average of 3.2 goals in their matches. The 2.5 line was surpassed in 80% of the last five appearances by both Volos and Iraklis, while both teams scored in 60% of those fixtures. Volos has recently created chances worth 1.36 xG per match, whereas Iraklis allowed opponents 1.84 xG, clearly supporting the prospect of at least two home goals or a strong attacking contribution. Additionally, Iraklis conceded 4 goals in the available season sample despite just 0.78 xG in attack, making its defence the primary source of goal potential. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as the expected total of 2.75 goals provides this line with a clearer safety margin than Over 2.5.

The strongest signal points to a Volos win both at half-time and at full-time, as Iraklis lost 0–4 in the available league sample, failed to score, and conceded an average of 4.0 goals. The visitors generated just 0.78 xG while allowing 2.76 xG at their own end, and their only recorded appearance resulted in conceding 2 goals before the break and a further 2 after half-time. In their last 5 matches, both teams averaged 1.0 goal per game, but Volos have home advantage, while Iraklis lost 60% of those matches and were trailing at half-time in as many as 60% of them. The hosts have also struggled early on, surrendering a half-time lead in 80% of their last 5 matches, so a draw after 45 minutes remains a significant alternative. However, the season data is very limited, meaning the 1/1 pick is based primarily on Iraklis’ exceptionally weak defence and lack of attacking efficiency.