Vora vs Vllaznia Shkodër: match statistics

Vora have the home advantage, averaging 2 goals per game at home, while Vllaznia Shkodër score just 0.67 goals away and have yet to win on the road. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored 6 goals and suffered 2 defeats, while the visitors have scored 4 and lost as many as 4 times. Both defences give opponents chances: Vora concede an average of 1.67 goals at home, and Vllaznia 2 away, so a home win is not a certainty. Average xG in these conditions is almost identical—1.25 for Vora and 1.23 for Vllaznia—but the hosts are far more clinical, converting 21% of their shots into goals compared with 7%. This difference in finishing, coupled with the visitors’ poor away form, points to a Vora win.

BTTS - Yes landed in 50% of Vora’s matches and 67% of Vllaznia’s, giving a slight edge to the both-teams-to-score scenario. Vora average 1.25 goals scored, while the visitors concede 2.00 on average, making a home goal look likely. The bigger question mark is Vllaznia’s attack: they average just 0.67 goals and failed to score in 33% of their matches. However, Vora concede an average of 1.75 goals and keep a clean sheet in only 25% of matches. Over their last five games, both teams conceded 1.8 and 2.0 goals per match respectively, further supporting BTTS - Yes, although the edge remains slight.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 75% of Vora’s matches and 100% of Vllaznia’s. Both defenses concede a high number of goals—an average of 1.75 for the hosts and 2.00 for the visitors per match—which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. Vora average 1.25 goals scored, while Vllaznia average 0.67, so after accounting for defensive weaknesses, I project 1.55 and 1.15 goals respectively. The 2.5 line is less convincing, as it has been cleared in only 40% of each team’s last five matches.

The strongest signal is Vora leading at the break and maintaining that advantage through to the final whistle. In their last five matches, the hosts led at half-time twice, while Vllaznia were trailing at the break three times; on average, Vora scored 0.6 goals before half-time, and the visitors conceded 1.0. The hosts’ case is also supported by their season-long record: they average 1.25 goals per match compared with the visitors’ 0.67, while Vllaznia concede an average of 2.0 goals and have not won any of the three matches included in the data. After half-time, Vllaznia concede an average of 1.33 goals, while Vora score 0.75, increasing the likelihood of the hosts protecting any lead. However, the sample is small, and the hosts were trailing at half-time in two of their four matches, so 1/1 remains the most likely single HT/FT scenario, but it is not a certain pick.