VPS vs HJK: match statistics

VPS shows a clear advantage in recent form: in the last 5 matches they scored 19 goals (3.8 per game) with a record of 3 wins and 2 draws, averaging 2.2 points per game, while HJK in their last 5 have 8 goals (1.6 per game) and a 2-2-1 record averaging 1.6 points per game. In chance creation VPS at home averages 12.67 shots and 4.33 shots on target per match with xG 1.48, whereas HJK away averages 11.25 shots and 3.25 on target with xG 1.33. Defensively the advantage is with the visitors — HJK concede 0.75 goals on average away versus 1.00 conceded by VPS at home, and HJK fail to score in 25% of away matches vs 33% FTS for the hosts. VPS’s seasonal home stats show 0% home losses but only 33% wins and 67% draws, indicating consistent point accumulation by the hosts; however, the current run of 19 goals in 5 matches along with better shots on target and higher xG at home gives them the edge. Given these figures, I project a home win at ~60%, a draw at 25% and an HJK win at 15%.

I lean toward BTTS - Yes because, despite VPS having a season BTTS rate of only 25% while HJK sits at 50%, VPS recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches and averages 3.8 goals (19 goals in 5 matches) versus HJK’s 1.6 goals (8 goals). xG supports this view: VPS produces 1.62 xG per match, HJK 1.33 xG, while both teams concede around 1.33–1.36 xG (VPS 1.33, HJK 1.36), indicating realistic chances for goals at both ends. VPS averages 4.75 on-target shots versus HJK’s 3.25, and HJK has scored 11 away goals this season compared to VPS’s 6, demonstrating the visitors’ ability to score on the road. Against BTTS - Yes speaks the high season clean sheet rate for VPS (50%) and the league’s overall clean sheet level (56%), but VPS’s current form advantage and similar xG figures favor selecting BTTS - Yes.

Expected goals are 1.49 for VPS and 1.33 for HJK, totalling 2.82. The 2.82 sum is 1.32 goals above the 1.5 line and 0.32 above the 2.5 line, which is a strong signal for the over, especially on the 1.5 line. The xG model corroborates this: VPS has an attacking xG of 1.62 versus xG against HJK of 1.36 (average 1.49 for VPS), while HJK has attacking xG of 1.33 versus xG against VPS of 1.33 (1.33 for HJK). Additionally, VPS averages 13.25 shots and 4.75 on target, HJK 11.25 shots and 3.25 on target, which favors goal-scoring. Recent form amplifies this picture: VPS scored 19 goals in the last 5 matches (3.8 avg), HJK 8 in 5 (1.6), and season percentages for over 2.5 goals are 50% for VPS and 25% for HJK (league 37%), so Over 2.5 is moderately likely. In summary, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated ~90%), Over 2.5 is moderate at 62%, and Over 3.5 is unlikely (~28%), therefore I recommend backing the Over on the 1.5 line.

VPS holds a clear overall and offensive edge: season average goals 1.75 versus HJK’s 1.25, and xG 1.62 versus 1.33 indicates higher-quality chances for the hosts. At Half-Time VPS scores on average 0.75 goals and led at the break in 50% of matches this season, while HJK averages 0.5 goals at Half-Time and led only in 25%; additionally, in the last five fixtures VPS led at the break in 80% of cases, scoring on average 2.6 goals by Half-Time. VPS averages 4.75 shots on target and 13.25 shots per match versus HJK’s 3.25 and 11.25, with equal conversion rate of 11%, which increases the likelihood of goal-scoring opportunities for the hosts. HJK, however, is more proactive after the break — in Second-Halves they average 1.75 points versus VPS’s 1.5 and win 50% of Second-Halves — so there is a real risk of a turnaround and a draw. On that basis I assign the highest probability to the scenario of VPS leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time (1/1 — 36%), allocate 20% to a draw at Half-Time and Full-Time (X/X) and 10% to VPS leading at Half-Time and a Full-Time draw (1/X) due to HJK’s strength after the break.