VPS vs Ilves: match statistics
VPS vs Ilves: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
VPS played Ilves in Veikkausliiga (Finland). The match was played on 24 April 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
VPS: 0-2-1, 0.67 points/match. Ilves: 0-1-2, 0.33 points/match.
Goal statistics
VPS scores 0.00 and concedes 0.33 goals per match. Ilves scores 1.33 and concedes 2.33. League average: 2.42 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: VPS 0%, Ilves 100%. Over 2.5: VPS 0%, Ilves 100%. League level: BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Ilves has higher xG: 1.28 vs 0.80. VPS: 5.7 shots per match, Ilves: 11.0.
Match halves
VPS: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.00. Ilves: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
VPS: 0-15 (0 goals). Ilves: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Veikkausliiga: 2.42 goals per match, BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a draw (X). VPS at home records 100% draws and 100% clean sheets with an average of 0 goals scored and 0 conceded per home match, 2 shots on target and 54% possession; in the last 5 matches they have a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss and 1.6 points per game. Ilves have not won away (0% wins), have 50% draws and 50% losses, score an average of 1.5 goals away, but concede 2.0 on average and conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches, yielding only 0.4 pts per game in that period. In terms of quality of chances VPS at home have xG 1.03 versus xG against 2.11, while Ilves away have xG 1.05 versus xG against 1.53, so Ilves create similar chances but have clear defensive issues. Considering VPS’s 100% home draws and Ilves’s lack of away wins and the points difference (1.6 vs 0.4 PPG in the last 5), I assign the highest probability to a draw (65%), with 10% for a home win and 25% for an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have season BTTS at 100% (VPS 100% and Ilves 100%), which is a strong signal that these teams’ matches frequently end with goals from both sides. Match data support this: VPS has average xG 1.74 versus 1.05 for Ilves; VPS averages 5.0 shots on target and 14.0 shots per match, while Ilves averages 3.0 shots on target and 9.5 shots, with Ilves conversion rate at 16% versus 7% for VPS. However, the last 5 matches show divergence — VPS scored 17 and conceded just 1 (3.4 for and 0.2 against on average), producing 0% BTTS in the last five, whereas Ilves in that period has 8 scored and 12 conceded (1.6 and 2.4) and 100% BTTS. Given the league BTTS level of 42%, and that both teams have 100% of matches over 2.5 goals this season, the dominant seasonal BTTS signals and xG/SOT stats indicate a higher probability of both teams scoring than VPS’s recent form alone would suggest. Therefore I forecast BTTS - Yes with a probability of 75% vs 25% — driven by both teams’ seasonal 100% BTTS, the xG edge 1.74 vs 1.05 and Ilves’ high efficiency (16% conversion), despite VPS’s recent run warranting caution.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on both teams' xG (VPS 1.74 vs Ilves 1.05) and conceded xG (1.53 for both), I expect approximately 1.64 goals for VPS and 1.29 for Ilves, totaling ~2.93 goals. A Poisson model for total xG = 2.93 projects probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈ 79%, Over 2.5 ≈ 56% and Over 3.5 ≈ 34%. Additionally, seasonal data reinforces the bias toward more goals — both teams scored in 100% of matches and both teams’ matches exceeded 2.5 goals in 100% of fixtures this season; VPS scored 17 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 3.4), Ilves conceded 12 goals (avg 2.4), and VPS averages 14 shots (5 on target) vs Ilves 9.5 (3 on target). Taking this into account I lift the estimates to Over 1.5 = 86%, Over 2.5 = 65% and Over 3.5 = 38%; the strongest signal from the data is Over 2.5 (back the Over at the 2.5 line), since xG ≈ 2.93 aligns with seasonal 100% Over 2.5 and 100% both-teams-to-score matches.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
First-half statistics strongly favor Ilves: VPS did not score before the break (average 0.0) and conceded an average of 2.0 goals by half-time, while Ilves averaged 1.0 goal at the break and led at the break in 50% of matches. Over the full match VPS concedes an average of 3.0 goals per game, despite generating higher xG (1.74 vs 1.05) and more shots (14 vs 9.5); with the hosts’ low finishing rate (conversion 7% vs Ilves’ 16%) this indicates problems in chance completion. Both teams regularly score (both have goals in 100% of matches), but Ilves’ efficiency (an average 1.5 goals per away match this season) gives them the edge over 90 minutes. Therefore the most likely scenario is Ilves to lead at the break and Ilves to win after 90 minutes, hence the selection 2/2.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| VPS | Ilves | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 23% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.00 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
VPS is 103% better for: last-5 form.
0.67 pts / match - VPS · 0.33 pts / match - Ilves
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
VPS is 606% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.33 goals / match - VPS · 2.33 goals / match - Ilves
VPS scores in 0% of matches (0 of 3 matches), while Ilves keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 3 matches).
Ilves scores in 100% of matches (3 of 3 matches), while VPS keeps a clean sheet in 67% (2 of 3 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - VPS
Over / Under - Ilves
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ilves is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - VPS · 1.33 pts / match - Ilves
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
VPS - second-half results
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ilves - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 33% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 67% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Average goals in match | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 67% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 33% | 0% |
| No goal | 33% | 33% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Concedes most in 61-75 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
VPS
Ilves
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Veikkausliiga).
Teams vs league
| VPS | Liga | Ilves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 0.33 | 2.42 | ▲ 3.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 0% | 42% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 0% | 47% | ▲ 100% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 67% | 34% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 0% | 74% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 33% | 79% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): VPS 1 - 0 - 1 Ilves. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of VPS vs Ilves?
The Veikkausliiga match finished VPS 3:2 Ilves. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches VPS won 1, Ilves won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before VPS vs Ilves?
VPS score 0.00 goals per game on average and Ilves 1.33. The Veikkausliiga average is 2.42 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 0% of VPS's matches and 100% of Ilves's.
What form are VPS and Ilves in?
Over the last 5 games VPS have a 0-2-1 record (0.67 points per game) and Ilves 0-1-2 (0.33 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for VPS vs Ilves?
The statistical background for VPS vs Ilves — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.