VPS vs Jaro: match statistics

VPS holds a defensive edge and a superior league position (6th vs 9th Jaro): in the last 5 matches the home side scored 8 and conceded 6, averaging 1.6 goals for and 1.2 against per game, while Jaro scored 9 and conceded 14 (1.8 goals for and 2.8 against per game). The visitors have a slightly better form points rate (1.2 points per game vs 0.8 for VPS) and 2 wins in 5 matches compared to 1 for the hosts, but Jaro’s 14 conceded goals point to serious defensive issues. The last-5 balance is VPS +2 (8-6) and Jaro -5 (9-14), indicating that although the visitors’ attack is active, their defence consistently fails. Given this data combination I predict a home win; I assess the probabilities as 55% for VPS, 25% for a draw and 20% for a Jaro win.

Analysis of the last 5 matches indicates a bias toward a BTTS - Yes scenario: VPS averages 1.6 goals per game (8 in 5), while Jaro concedes 2.8 goals per game (14 conceded in 5). Conversely, Jaro also has attacking threat — averaging 1.8 goals per game (9 in 5), and VPS concedes 1.2 goals (6 conceded in 5), so both sides have realistic chances to score. xG confirms moderate activity: VPS has an attacking xG of 0.96 versus xG against Jaro of 1.13, and Jaro has attacking xG of 1.23 versus xG against VPS of 1.41, suggesting scoring chances may arise for both sides. However, the league has a seasonal BTTS rate of 50% and a high clean sheet rate of 67%, which weakens an overly strong BTTS signal, so I do not assign an extreme probability. Considering the specific numbers (BTTS in last 5: 40% for VPS vs 60% for Jaro and goals 1.6/1.8 and conceded 1.2/2.8), I edge the prediction to Yes at 60% vs 40%.

In the last 5 matches VPS averaged 1.6 goals (8 in 5), and Jaro averaged 1.8 goals (9 in 5), giving a combined 3.4 goals per game based on current form. xG analysis shows 0.96 xG for VPS and 1.23 xG for Jaro over the last 5; blending VPS attack (0.96) with Jaro’s defense (1.13 xG against) predicts ≈1.05 goals for the home side, while blending Jaro attack (1.23) with VPS defense (1.41) predicts ≈1.32 goals for the away side. The total expected goals are ≈2.37 (1.05+1.32), which is only 0.13 goals below the 2.5 line, but 0.87 above the 1.5 line. Additionally, Jaro conceded 14 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 2.8), and both teams had 60% of matches over 2.5 in their last 5, which increases the probability of an over. Based on this I give a strong signal for Over 1.5 (~92%), a moderate signal for Over 2.5 (54%) and a low signal for Over 3.5 (22%), therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the best option.

VPS has a clear advantage in chance creation: xG_for_avg_home 1.29 versus 0.0 for Jaro, and on average 10.0 shots and 3.0 shots on target per match, which increases the hosts’ chance of scoring before the break. In the last 5 matches VPS averaged 0.8 goals scored by half-time and conceded 0.4, while Jaro averaged 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded by half-time, so a VPS lead at the break looks more likely. Over the full match Jaro has conceded an average of 2.8 goals in the last 5 games, and VPS has scored 1.6 on average in their last 5, which favors a home victory after 90 minutes. However, note that this season VPS have been leading at half-time in 100% of matches and have lost 100% of games (seasonal data), so I assign a significant probability to draw scenarios and to a Jaro turnaround after the break.