VPS vs Oulu: match statistics

VPS have significantly better home figures: they average 1.64 goals with an xG of 1.50, while Oulu score 1.18 goals away from home and generate an xG of 1.28. The hosts concede just 1.00 goal per match at home, whereas Oulu’s away defense allows opponents an average of 1.45 goals and an xG of 1.57. VPS also record more shots on target, 4.82 compared with 3.73, and have a positive home goal difference of +7, compared with Oulu’s -3 in away matches. The last five games do not indicate a significant difference in form, as VPS won 2 matches and Oulu also won 2, with one draw, but the visitors have scored just 4 goals during this period. A closely contested match is expected, but VPS’s superior quality at home points to a narrow victory for the hosts.

The BTTS signal is clearly below the league average: VPS has seen both teams score in 36% of its matches, while Oulu stands at 45%, compared with 49% across the league. In their last five matches, Oulu recorded BTTS in just 20% of cases, scoring an average of 0.8 goals and conceding 0.8, which points to frequent matches in which only one side finds the net. VPS has a solid seasonal defensive record, conceding an average of 0.82 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 45% of matches, so the visitors may struggle to score. Oulu does concede an average of 1.45 goals, but the hosts score only 1.09 goals per match and also failed to score in 27% of their appearances. Lower recent scoring figures—1.0 goals for VPS and 0.8 for Oulu per match—support the scenario in which at least one team fails to score, making BTTS - No the preferred outcome.

The goal profiles of both teams point to a moderate tempo: VPS average 1.09 goals, while Oulu average 1.18 goals per match. VPS have a solid defense, conceding an average of 0.82 goals, whereas Oulu have scored just 0.8 goals and conceded 0.8 in their last five matches. The xG figures suggest around 1.30 goals for the hosts and 1.02 for the visitors, producing a projected total of 2.32 goals, below the 3.5 line. Under 3.5 goals was recorded in 91% of VPS matches and 73% of Oulu matches, while neither team has shown consistency in scoring at least three goals. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5, as four goals would require a clear departure from both teams’ season-long trends.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a VPS win at full-time (X/1), as the hosts have been level at the break in 64% of their matches and have conceded just 0.18 goals on average during the first half. VPS score only 0.27 goals per match before the break, which supports a cautious opening, although Oulu have a major defensive problem in this phase, allowing opponents to score an average of 1.09 goals. After the interval, the hosts score an average of 0.82 goals and win the second half in 55% of matches, while their season-long win rate stands at 55%, compared with Oulu’s 36%. VPS’s advantage is further reinforced by their more solid overall defensive record, conceding an average of 0.82 goals compared with Oulu’s 1.45, as well as Oulu’s higher opponents’ xG of 1.57 versus VPS’s 1.19.