Waasland-Beveren vs Sint-Truiden: match statistics

Sint-Truiden sit 8th, while Waasland-Beveren are 12th, and the visitors have scored 12 goals in five matches this season compared with the hosts’ 5. In their last five fixtures, Sint-Truiden have won 3 times and scored 11 goals, whereas Waasland-Beveren have recorded 2 victories but also suffered 3 defeats, with a 5:10 goal difference. The visitors create significantly more chances in the opposition box away from home: they average 16 shots and 7 on target, compared with the hosts’ 11.5 shots and 5 on target at home, while their conversion rate stands at 22% versus 17%. Waasland-Beveren have won both of their home matches so far without conceding, but Sint-Truiden average 3.5 goals per away game and have failed to score in none of their away fixtures. The visitors’ weaker defence, allowing an average of 2.41 xG, gives the hosts a realistic chance of finding the net, but the greater attacking strength and stronger recent form point to a Sint-Truiden win.

Sint-Truiden is sending a very strong signal for goals from both sides: BTTS has landed in 100% of their matches this season, they score an average of 3.5 goals and have not kept a single clean sheet. Waasland-Beveren create plenty of chances at home, averaging 2.07 xG and 20.33 shots per match, while the away side’s defence allows 2.41 xG and concedes an average of 2.0 goals. However, the hosts have a lower BTTS rate of just 33%, and in the last five matches both teams scored in only 20% of their appearances, which limits confidence in the pick. Nevertheless, Sint-Truiden have scored 2.2 goals per match across their last five games, while Waasland-Beveren conceded an average of 2.0 goals during that period, so an away goal looks highly likely. The most realistic scenario is that the hosts’ attacking quality will be enough to exploit Sint-Truiden’s weak defence, which is why BTTS - Yes has a slight edge.

The match profile clearly favors goals: Over 1.5 goals has landed in all previous matches involving both teams, while Sint-Truiden recorded Over 2.5 goals in 100% of their games. The visitors score an average of 3,50 goals per match, while Waasland-Beveren concede 1,33, creating highly favorable attacking conditions. In their last five matches, the hosts conceded 2,00 goals per game, while the visitors scored 2,20, with both teams recording at least three goals in 80% of their matches. The quality of chances created also points to strong scoring potential, as the hosts’ average xG stands at 2,07, while Sint-Truiden allow opponents 2,41 xG. The strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as even after regression from the very small sample size, the projected 3,30 goals provide a substantial margin above this line.

Sint-Truiden show a clearer first-half signal: in their matches so far away from home, they have led at the break in 2 of 2 games, scoring an average of 1.5 goals before half-time, while Waasland-Beveren have managed just 0.33 goals during that period. The visitors are also more effective over the full match, averaging 3.5 goals and 7 shots on target, with a finishing efficiency of 22% compared with 8% for the hosts. In their last five matches, Sint-Truiden have won 60% of their games and scored an average of 2.2 goals, whereas the hosts have lost 60% of their matches, conceding an average of 2.0 goals. Waasland-Beveren have the potential to respond after the break, given their average xG of 2.07; however, the visitors score 2.0 goals per match after half-time, so the most likely outcome remains a Sint-Truiden lead at the break followed by a full-time victory—HT/FT 1/1.