Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Salzburg: match statistics

Wacker Innsbruck are the favourites: they have won 67% of their home matches and remain unbeaten, while Austria Salzburg have lost 75% of their away games. The hosts average 2.33 goals scored and just 0.33 conceded at home, whereas the visitors score 1 goal and concede 1.5 on the road. Wacker also have the edge in shot conversion, at 16% compared with Austria’s 8%, although the teams’ almost identical xG in these conditions — 1.65 and 1.63 — suggests the visitors could create chances too. In their last five matches, Wacker have recorded 2 wins and conceded 8 goals, while Austria have won only once and conceded 11, strengthening the case for the hosts without ruling out a closely contested match.

Wacker Innsbruck have scored and conceded in 100% of their home matches, while Austria Salzburg have seen both teams score in 50% of their away matches; over the last five games, those figures were 80% and 60%, respectively. The hosts average 3.0 goals scored at home, while the visitors concede 1.5 on the road, strongly backing a Wacker goal. Austria's chances of scoring are supported by the fact that Wacker have not kept a clean sheet at home and have conceded an average of 1.75 goals, while the visitors' away xG stands at 1.63. The risk to this pick is Austria's away average of 1.0 goal and their failure to score in 25% of their matches. Even so, the balance of attacking and defensive indicators suggests that BTTS - Yes is more likely than BTTS - No, which only requires at least one team not to score.

Wacker Innsbruck matches have averaged 4.75 goals so far, with the Over 1.5 goals line landing in 100% of those games; the figure for Austria Salzburg matches is 75%. Across their last five appearances, the teams averaged 3.2 and 3.4 goals respectively, indicating that high goal totals are not limited to the season as a whole. The hosts score an average of 3.0 goals, although their xG is 1.45, so the forecast of 1.85 goals allows for a potential drop in finishing efficiency; the visitors have an xG of 1.63 and a forecast of 1.45 goals. With a combined forecast of 3.30 goals, Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, while higher lines are less certain, particularly as Over 3.5 landed in only 25% of the visitors’ matches.

Across their four matches so far this season, both teams have been level at half-time three times, while Austria Salzburg have yet to lead at the break. This points to a closely contested first half, although Wacker leading at half-time remains a realistic alternative. After the break, Wacker have averaged 2.0 goals, while Austria Salzburg have conceded an average of 1.6 goals in the second halves of their last five matches. The hosts have won three of their four league matches this season, whereas the visitors have lost three of four, so I consider a half-time draw followed by a Wacker win to be the most likely HT/FT outcome. The forecast is limited by the small sample size and by the fact that the visitors’ average xG is 1.63, compared with 1.45 for the hosts.