Wadi Degla vs Al Ittihad: match statistics

Wadi Degla enter the match as favorites: at home they score on average 1.08 goals and concede only 0.77 per game, and across the season they have 28 goals scored and a positive home goal difference (+4). Wadi Degla’s form is strong — in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins and 2 draws, collecting 11 points (2.2 points per game) and kept a clean sheet in all five matches (goals conceded in last 5 = 0). Al Ittihad has significantly lower attacking output: 21 goals this season, only 0.64 goals per away game on average, a negative away goal difference of -7 and concedes 1.14 on average away; in their last 5 matches the visitors have conceded 4 goals. Wadi also creates better chances: on average 11.31 shots and 3.46 on target at home with a conversion rate of 10%, whereas Al Ittihad away averages 9.71 shots, 2.64 on target and about a 7% conversion. Considering the advantage in xG (1.31 vs 1.08), better defense (0.77 vs 1.14) and higher average points in the last five matches (2.2 vs 1.4), I predict a home win; estimated probabilities: home 60%, draw 25%, away 15%.

The strongest signal against BTTS comes from the home side's form: Wadi Degla has 0% BTTS in the last 5 matches and has not conceded a single goal (ga_l5_home = 0.0), which significantly reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Season-to-date BTTS rates are moderate: 42% for Wadi and 43% for Al Ittihad versus a league average of 46%, meaning historically BTTS occurs below 50%. Al Ittihad scores only 0.64 goals per match on average and has 43% of matches without a goal despite xG_for = 1.08, while Wadi has xG_for = 1.27 and xG_against = 1.2, indicating a home advantage in chance creation and the ability to stifle the opponent. Shot metrics (3.5 SOT vs 2.64 SOT) and conversion rates (10% vs 7%) confirm Wadi’s superior finishing, and the visitors often fail to convert opportunities, so I tip "No" (No Goal) with a confidence of 65% vs 35% for "Yes" (BTTS - Yes).

The xG model for this match yields a total of approximately 2.50 goals, split as 1.36 xG for Wadi Degla and 1.14 xG for Al Ittihad. Historically Wadi Degla had Over 1.5 in 75% of matches, Al Ittihad in 43%, while seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 42% and 36% for home and away respectively — indicating the home side more often produces matches with at least 2 goals. Assuming a Poisson distribution with a total of 2.50 gives estimated probabilities of 71% for Over 1.5, 46% for Over 2.5 and 24% for Over 3.5, which aligns with the above stats and the higher xG for the hosts. Supporting indicators include an average of 3.5 on-target shots for Wadi Degla versus 2.64 for Al Ittihad and a higher shot conversion rate of 10% vs 7%, increasing the likelihood of chances being converted. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — combining the 75% home over rate, total xG=2.50 and the Poisson model yields 71% probability, making it the safest option.

I expect a draw at half-time because the hosts were level at the break in 50% of their matches and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 58% of games, with the hosts’ average goals by half-time only 0.33 versus 0.21 for the visitors. Wadi Degla has a clear advantage in the second half: 83% of their matches featured at least one goal after the break (vs 64% for Al Ittihad), second-half goals per match average 1.25 for the home side vs 1.0 for the away side, and the hosts scored 6 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 2 for their opponents. xG and season-long metrics support this tendency: Wadi Degla’s xG is 1.27 versus 1.08 for Al Ittihad, the hosts score on average 1.00 goal per match versus 0.64 for the visitors, and Al Ittihad concedes 1.44 xG per match. Additionally, form and points emphasize the home advantage — in the last five matches Wadi Degla have a 60% win rate vs 20% for the visitors, and season home points are 1.42 vs 0.79, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround after the break and gives the strongest signal for HT/FT X/1.