Wadi Degla vs Olympic El Qanah: match statistics

Olympic El Qanah sit 6th, while Wadi Degla are 12th, and in their last five matches the visitors have collected 10 points from 3 wins and a draw, compared with the hosts’ 8 points. The away side scored 8 goals during this period—twice as many as Wadi Degla, who netted 4 times. Away from home, Olympic El Qanah won their only match so far 2:1 and averaged 3 shots on target, compared with just 1 shot on target for Wadi Degla at home. The hosts drew their only home game 0:0, failing to score despite having 60% possession, while their xG stood at just 0.72. Wadi Degla are capable of defending well, however, keeping a clean sheet in that match and limiting their opponents to an xG of 0.90. Therefore, a draw remains a realistic scenario, but I rate the visitors’ superior finishing more highly.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Wadi Degla’s defensive record over their last 5 matches: the team has conceded just 1 goal, averaging 0.2 per game, with an xG against of 0.76. The hosts themselves scored only 0.8 goals per match during this period, while the BTTS scenario occurred in 0% of their last five games. Olympic El Qanah have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five appearances and average 1.6 goals, but their attacking xG is only 1.32, which may prove insufficient against a very solid opposition defence. In addition, the league BTTS average is just 38%, while the average number of goals in the competition is 2.19. Therefore, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

Wadi Degla’s latest five matches produced just 4 goals scored and 1 conceded, averaging only 1.0 total goals per game. During this period, the hosts created chances worth an average of 1.03 xG, while their defense limited opponents to just 0.76 xG. Olympic El Qanah has been more goal-oriented, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across its last five matches, but its average xG stands at 1.32, which does not point to a very high-scoring game. The Egyptian league averages 2.19 goals per match, and only 38% of games go Over 2.5 goals, further supporting a cautious profile. The Under 3.5 goals line offers the greatest edge, as even with an attacking contribution from the visitors, a four-goal result would require a clear departure from the hosts’ very tight recent run.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Wadi Degla win, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, scoring an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time. Olympic El Qanah also tend to start cautiously: they were level at half-time in 50% of their matches, while their average first-half goal total is 1.0. After the break, Wadi Degla have shown a very solid defensive profile, conceding no second-half goals in their last five matches, whereas the visitors lost the second half in 50% of that sample. In their current form, the hosts concede just 0.2 goals per match, while Olympic El Qanah allow opponents an xG of 1.53, supporting the turnaround scenario in Wadi Degla’s favour after half-time. The low league frequency of goals before the break, with at least one goal recorded in just 38% of matches, further strengthens the expectation of a closely contested start.