Waldhof Mannheim vs Verl: match statistics

Waldhof Mannheim have a clear form advantage: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, while Verl have lost all 5 games and failed to earn a single point. The hosts have won 100% of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 2 goals with an xG of 2.11, whereas the visitors concede as many as 4 goals per away game. Mannheim create significantly more danger, averaging 21 shots and 7 shots on target, compared with Verl’s 9 shots and 3 efforts on target. The visitors’ defense looks particularly vulnerable, having conceded 17 goals in their last five matches, while their average xG against stands at 1.73. Verl enjoy an average of 63% possession, but this translates into just 1 goal and an xG of 1.07 away from home, which is why the more clinical Waldhof Mannheim are the favorites.

The BTTS signal is clear, as this scenario has occurred in 100% of the teams’ previous matches, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. Waldhof Mannheim score an average of 1.5 goals at home, while Verl concede as many as 4.0 goals per away match, strongly supporting a home goal. The visitors do score only 1.0 goal per away game, but Mannheim allow opponents an average of 3.0 goals, with their average xG conceded standing at 1.51. Over the last five matches, BTTS has fallen to 60% for both teams, but Verl still generated xG of 1.43, while Mannheim conceded an average of 1.6 goals. The hosts’ attacking edge and the very weak defensive records of both sides make a goal for each team more likely than the BTTS No scenario, in which at least one team fails to score.

The profile of this match clearly favors goals: in the current competition, both teams have exceeded 1.5 goals per match in 100% of their games, while at least 3 goals have been scored in 100% of cases. Waldhof have averaged 3.6 goals scored in their last five matches, while Verl have conceded as many as 3.4 goals per game. The hosts are also creating more danger, averaging 1.54 xG and 7 shots on target, compared with Verl’s 1.43 xG and 3 shots on target. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, and the league average of 3.6 goals further supports the scenario of an open game. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as even with a cautious forecast of 3.20 goals, the risk of the match ending with no more than one goal remains limited.

Waldhof Mannheim are in clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 3.6 goals and won 40% of their games, while Verl scored just 0.8 goals and lost all five of their outings. The hosts were leading at the break in 75% of their recent matches, and their average of 1.25 goals before half-time is higher than Verl’s 0.5. Waldhof’s advantage is also evident in the quality of the chances created, with their average xG standing at 1.63 compared with 1.07 for the visitors, while they average 7.0 shots on target against Verl’s 3.0. Verl concede an average of 3.4 goals over their last five matches, including 3.0 after half-time, so even with the hosts’ defensive volatility, the most likely outcome is for them to maintain their lead until full-time. The 1/1 scenario is further supported by the fact that the visitors have not won a single second half in this sequence, and Waldhof should be able to exploit their opponents’ weakness after the break.