Walsall vs Rochdale: match statistics

Walsall remain unbeaten after five matchdays, with a record of 2 wins and 3 draws, while Rochdale have lost 4 of their 5 matches and sit 22nd. At home, the hosts average 1.5 goals, register 15.5 shots per match and create chances worth 1.58 xG, while Rochdale have yet to score away from home and average just 0.85 xG. The visitors’ defence concedes an average of 2 goals on the road and have yet to keep a clean sheet, which clearly contrasts with Walsall keeping clean sheets in 50% of their home matches. Walsall have drawn four of their last five matches, so the hosts’ cautious approach increases the likelihood of a draw; however, Rochdale’s extremely poor away attacking output points towards a home win.

The strongest signal is Rochdale’s very poor away attacking efficiency: the team has yet to score an away goal, recording 0% of matches with a goal and 100% of matches without scoring. Although Walsall concede an average of 2.00 goals at home, their last five matches have produced just 0.80 goals conceded per game, while Rochdale create an average of only 0.85 xG. The hosts have clearly greater attacking potential, averaging 1.67 goals at home, 1.00 xG and 3.33 shots on target, whereas Rochdale record 0.00 goals and 0.00% away scoring efficiency. BTTS has landed in 40% of the last five matches for both teams, below the league average of 56%. The BTTS scenario cannot be ruled out due to Rochdale’s weak defence, which concedes an average of 2.00 goals, but a Walsall win to nil is more likely than an away goal.

Walsall average 1.67 goals at home, but their average xG is only 1.00, which limits expectations of a very high goal tally. Rochdale have yet to score away from home and failed to find the net in 100% of such matches, despite Walsall allowing opponents an xG of 1.56. In their last five matches, Walsall have averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Rochdale games have produced an average of 3.0 goals, mainly due to conceding 2.0 goals per match. The 3.5 line offers value, as 67% of Walsall matches and all of Rochdale’s away fixtures so far have finished with fewer than four goals, while the projected total of 2.30 goals remains clearly below this threshold.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Walsall victory at the final whistle, as the hosts have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, drawing four of them, while Rochdale have lost four of their last five. Walsall were level at the break in 60% of their recent outings and have not trailed at half-time once, whereas Rochdale were behind after 45 minutes in 60% of their matches. The hosts’ defence has conceded an average of just 0.8 goals per game in their latest run, clearly fewer than Rochdale’s 2.0, which supports the prospect of Walsall taking control after an even start. The visitors score an average of only 0.4 goals before half-time, and their average xG stands at 0.85 compared with Walsall’s 1.00, making a Rochdale lead at the break followed by a win less likely. In the second halves, Rochdale have conceded an average of 1.2 goals over their last five matches, further strengthening Walsall’s chances of deciding the game after the break.