Wanderers vs Cerro: match statistics
Wanderers show significantly better home form than Cerro in away matches. The hosts have a 25% win rate at home and a 50% draw rate, while Cerro have not won any away matches this season (0% Win%). Offensive stats also favor Wanderers – an average of 0.75 goals per match at home with an xG of 1.58, compared to just 0.33 goals for Cerro away with an xG of 1.26. The visitors have an alarming 67% rate of matches without scoring away and a goal difference of -6. Wanderers, despite average form, should take advantage of their home ground and the visitors' weakness, although their low chance conversion rate (7%) and the fact that they failed to score in half of their home matches leave the door open for a draw. Taking all data into account, a home win is the most likely outcome, with the possibility of a draw.
Wanderers vs Cerro: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Wanderers played Cerro in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 28 March 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Wanderers: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Cerro: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Wanderers scores 0.88 and concedes 1.38 goals per match. Cerro scores 0.50 and concedes 1.38. League average: 2.27 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Wanderers 50%, Cerro 38%. Over 2.5: Wanderers 50%, Cerro 25%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Wanderers has higher xG: 1.45 vs 1.33. Wanderers: 11.4 shots per match, Cerro: 11.3.
Match halves
Wanderers: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.38. Cerro: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.25.
Goals by minute
Wanderers: 0-15 (2 goals). Cerro: 0-15 (1 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.27 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Wanderers show significantly better home form than Cerro in away matches. The hosts have a 25% win rate at home and a 50% draw rate, while Cerro have not won any away matches this season (0% Win%). Offensive stats also favor Wanderers – an average of 0.75 goals per match at home with an xG of 1.58, compared to just 0.33 goals for Cerro away with an xG of 1.26. The visitors have an alarming 67% rate of matches without scoring away and a goal difference of -6. Wanderers, despite average form, should take advantage of their home ground and the visitors' weakness, although their low chance conversion rate (7%) and the fact that they failed to score in half of their home matches leave the door open for a draw. Taking all data into account, a home win is the most likely outcome, with the possibility of a draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal data suggests a higher probability of one team failing to score, primarily due to Cerro's very poor attacking efficiency: an average of 0.33 goals per game, 67% of matches without a goal scored, and a mere 3% shot conversion rate. Wanderers boasts moderately solid defensive results (0.8 goals conceded per match) and a 20% clean sheet rate, further lowering the visitors' chances of scoring. Simultaneously, Cerro has a 0% clean sheet rate and a high average goals conceded (2.33), so the hosts should have a realistic chance to score, but this may not translate into BTTS. The BTTS rates of both teams are below the league average (Wanderers 40%, Cerro 33% vs league 45%), supporting the 'No' pick. Although Cerro's xG (1.26) is not low, the discrepancy between xG and actual goals coupled with a low number of shots on target (2.33) indicates finishing issues, making a goal from only one side the most probable scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model indicates moderate goal production: Wanderers average 1.28 xG per match, while Cerro concede 1.84 xGA, which boosts the hosts' potential, but their actual efficiency is low (0.6 goals per match, 6% conversion rate). Cerro's attack looks poor in terms of output (0.33 goals per match) and often fails to find the net (FTS 67%), despite decent xG (1.26), suggesting a finishing issue (3% conversion rate, 2.33 SOT). Wanderers' seasonal profile is clearly under-oriented (Under 2.5 = 100%, Over 3.5 = 0%), while the league has a moderate average of 2.27 goals. Data from the last 5 matches (roughly 2.2 goals per match combined for both teams) supports a scenario without a very high scoreline. Therefore, the best and strongest pick is Under 3.5, which provides a safety net against the typical goal distribution with an expected 2.20 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal for HT is a draw: Wanderers have a 100% rate of draws at half-time, with very low average goals in the first half (HT AVG 0.4; scored/conceded 0.2 each). Cerro rarely leads at the break (0%) and is more often behind (67%), further supporting the X at HT scenario. After halftime, the quality advantage should translate into a home win, as Cerro has 0% wins, 100% losses, and a very high average goals conceded this season (2.33), with no clean sheets. Goal and xG metrics (Wanderers xG for 1.28 vs Cerro xG against 1.84) suggest the hosts will create scoring chances despite overall low efficiency. High over 0.5 in the second half (Wanderers 80%, Cerro 100%) and Cerro's weakness in the final stages (many goals conceded 76–90) strengthen the case for a post-break turnaround and closing the match in favor of Wanderers.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Wanderers | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Wanderers is 75% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Wanderers · 0.8 pts / match - Cerro
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Wanderers is 76% better for: goals scored per match.
0.88 goals / match - Wanderers · 0.5 goals / match - Cerro
Wanderers scores in 63% of matches (5 of 8 matches), while Cerro keeps a clean sheet in 13% (1 of 8 matches).
Cerro scores in 50% of matches (4 of 8 matches), while Wanderers keeps a clean sheet in 25% (2 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Wanderers
Over / Under - Cerro
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Wanderers is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.88 pts / match - Wanderers · 0.75 pts / match - Cerro
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Wanderers - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cerro - second-half results
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Wanderers
Cerro
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Wanderers | Liga | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.25 | 2.27 | ▼ 1.88 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 45% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 44% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 31% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 66% | ▼ 38% |
| Goal after half-time | • 75% | 75% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Wanderers 1 - 0 - 2 Cerro. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Wanderers vs Cerro?
The Primera División match finished Wanderers 3:0 Cerro. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Wanderers and Cerro?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Wanderers won 1, Cerro won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Wanderers vs Cerro?
Wanderers score 0.88 goals per game on average and Cerro 0.50. The Primera División average is 2.27 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Wanderers's matches and 38% of Cerro's.
What form are Wanderers and Cerro in?
Over the last 5 games Wanderers have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Cerro 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Wanderers vs Cerro?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.