Warta Poznań vs Arka Gdynia: match statistics

Warta Poznań have an inconsistent record of 3 wins and 4 defeats, but they have won 2 of their last five matches, with their games remaining closely contested in terms of goals: 5 scored and 7 conceded. Arka Gdynia sit higher in 5th place and have a clearly stronger defensive record over the course of the season, conceding just 6 goals compared with Warta’s 11. However, the visitors have been very poor away from home: they average just 0.33 goals per away game, have failed to score in 67% of such matches and have lost 67% of their away fixtures. Although Arka average 13 shots per away game and create chances worth 1.23 xG, they convert just 3% of their attempts, increasing the hosts’ chances of securing a narrow victory. Arka’s stronger recent form, with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded in their last five matches, nevertheless means that a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is not Arka’s very low seasonal share of matches in which both teams scored, standing at 0% compared with the league average of 55%. The visitors score only 0.33 goals per away match and failed to score in 67% of such fixtures, while Warta keeps a clean sheet in 50% of home matches. Warta is clearly more effective in attack, scoring 2.25 goals per home match with 5.25 shots on target, whereas Arka records only 2.0 shots on target and a 3% finishing rate. The visitors’ recent form is better, as they averaged 1.8 goals over their last five matches with an xG of 1.58, but during the same period Warta allowed opponents just 1.2 xG. Therefore, the scenario in which the hosts score and Arka fail to find the net remains more likely than both teams scoring, making BTTS - No the stronger selection.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals: this result occurred in 75% of Warta’s home matches and in all of Arka’s away games. Arka scores an average of just 0.33 goals away from home, failed to score in 67% of such matches, and converts only 3% of its shots into goals. Warta concedes an average of 0.50 goals at home and keeps a clean sheet in half of those matches, further limiting the visitors’ potential. The hosts have attacking arguments, scoring an average of 2.25 goals at home with 1.59 xG, while Arka has conceded an average of 1.33 goals away, making a controlled result more likely than an open game. The last five matches raise expectations to around 2.40 goals, but still clearly support a maximum of three goals.

A half-time draw followed by an Arka win is the most likely outcome, as the visitors have averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last five matches, while Warta have conceded 1.4 goals per game during this period. Arka are unbeaten across this run, recording two wins and three draws, whereas Warta have lost three of their five fixtures. The prospect of a cautious opening is supported by the fact that both teams have averaged just 1.2 goals before half-time in their last five appearances, while Arka have kept a clean sheet at the break in 80% of these matches. After the interval, the hosts have recently scored just 0.4 goals per game and have failed to win any second half, whereas Arka have averaged 1.0 point in that period. Warta’s seasonal home-data advantage, having led at the break in 75% of their matches, reduces confidence in the pick; however, current form and Arka’s more stable defence support the X/2 scenario.