Wasilków vs Warta Sieradz: match statistics

Warta Sieradz is the favorite due to a clear season-long advantage: they sit 2nd with 18 wins and 56 goals scored, while Wasilków has 7 wins and 35 goals. Defensively the gap is evident — Wasilków concedes 1.92 goals on average in home matches and records only 8% clean sheets, whereas Warta concedes 1.00 on the road and maintains 36% clean sheets. In attack Warta averages 1.57 goals away with 11.58 shots and 4.5 shots on target; the visitors’ shot conversion is 15% versus the hosts’ 13%, and average xG are 1.50 (Warta) vs 1.24 (Wasilków), indicating higher quality of created chances. At the same time Wasilków shows better short-term form — 3 wins in the last 5 and 1.8 points per match versus Warta’s 1 win and 1.2 points per match — so the home side can be hard to beat. Considering Warta’s defensive stability and away efficiency (low share of matches without scoring 7% vs 38% for Wasilków) I assign 60% probability to the visitors’ win, 20% to a draw and 20% to the home win.

Both teams show high BTTS rates this season: Wasilków 73% and Warta Sieradz 64%, versus a league average of 63%, and in the last 5 matches both sides record BTTS at 80%. Offensive metrics indicate real threat from both teams — Wasilków scores 2.27 goals per game vs. Warta’s 1.57, with xG around 1.46 for the home side and 1.50 for the visitors; both teams also take a similar number of shots (11.43 vs 11.58) with 5.29 and 4.5 shots on target. Both teams also concede fairly often: seasonal goals conceded averages are 1.13 (Wasilków) and 1.00 (Warta), and in the last 5 matches both conceded on average 1.8 goals, which increases the likelihood of both teams getting on the scoresheet. The hosts have not had a match without scoring (0% matches without a goal) and the visitors failed to score in only 7% of matches, with relatively low clean sheet rates of 27% and 36%, so a shutout for either side is unlikely. Considering the seasonal 73%/64%, last5 80%/80%, xG ~1.46–1.50 and low no-goal percentages, I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 78% versus 22% for No.

Statistical analysis indicates an edge on Over 2.5 goals: Wasilków averages 2.27 goals per match (xG 1.46), while Warta Sieradz scores 1.57 goals (xG 1.50), yielding a combined xG of approximately 2.96. Seasonal rates show Wasilków’s matches finished Over 2.5 in 87% of cases and Warta’s in 43%; additionally the league average goals is 3.38, which favors a higher-scoring game. In the last 5 matches Wasilków has scored 11 and conceded 9 (avg 2.2 scored, 1.8 conceded) and 100% of games Over 2.5, while Warta in the last 5 has 9 scored and 9 conceded (avg 1.8/1.8) and 60% Over 2.5; based on this I project 1.75 goals for the home side and 1.35 for the visitors (total 3.10). Furthermore, the percentage of matches with Both Teams to Score is 73% for Wasilków and 64% for Warta, and Wasilków averages more on-target shots (5.29 vs 4.5), increasing the chance of additional goals. Therefore I recommend a bet on Over 2.5 goals, as the expected total (~3.10) and Wasilków’s strong efficiency and form provide the strongest signal on the 2.5 line.

Half statistics show that a draw at half-time is most common: the hosts had an HT draw in 7 matches (47%), while the away side had an HT draw in 8 matches (62%), whereas the hosts led at the break in 5 matches (33%) and the visitors in 2 (15%). Despite this, Wasilków is a clear favourite for the full-time result — they win 73% of matches and average 2.27 goals per game versus Warta Sieradz’s 1.57. The hosts score on average 0.87 goals by half-time compared to the visitors’ 0.38 and show strength in the second half: between minutes 61–75 they scored 11 goals versus the visitors’ 3, and the average post-break goals are 1.4 for the hosts versus 1.23 for the visitors. This leads me to assess that the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a home win at full-time (X/1) — I rate it at 28%; next are draw/draw (X/X) 14% and home leading from start to finish (1/1) 22%. Other combinations are less likely given the hosts’ superior goal record (2.27 vs 1.57), higher win percentage and stronger second-half attacking activity.